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All over Europe, it is a known fact that cities are shrinking. One of the main causes is population decline, but the consequent reduction of urban area is neither immediate nor easy to foresee spatially. Questions arise such as where do cities start to ‘shrink’ first? What are the most fragile areas that face the risk of becoming derelict? What are the most vulnerable social groups? And how does this affect real estate values across the city? Existing models for projecting the effects of shrinkage have been criticized for lacking spatial-explicitness, being excessively data-dependent, and failing to incorporate various socio-economic, urban and environmental aspects in the assessment of attractiveness of urban areas and of decisions by households. In this article, we attempt to overcome this criticism by applying the spatially-explicit Sustainable Urbanizing Landscape Development decision support tool (SULD), based on hedonic pricing theory, in two cities in southern Europe (Aveiro, Portugal and Imperia, Italy). SULD is used to project, assess and compare changes in land-use, household type distribution, real estate values and household densities, in three different scenarios of population decline (−5%, −10% and −15%). Results quantify the amount of contraction of urban area, housing quantity and living space; highlight the most problematic areas; and uncover low income households as the least affected, whereas the relocation of high income households may cause gentrification of medium income households in some areas of the historical city centre.

Despite global urbanization, not all cities have increasing populations. While not homogenous, shrinking cities arguably have different opportunities and challenges for green space than growing cities. This article reports a structured content analysis to investigate how urban green space planning evolved in two case study cities: Buffalo (New York, US) and Porto (Portugal). These cities both underwent shrinkage and suburbanization but with very different green space planning histories. The concept of green infrastructure is used as a lens to analyze green space planning change, specifically focused on multifunctionality. The aim of investigating how objectives and priorities for planning green spaces change during a period of urban shrinkage, and particularly what functions these cities have assigned to green space, showed that, over time, green spaces were expected to produce more ecological functions in both cities, and, particularly in Buffalo, contribute to the economic and demographic outcomes of the city. Overall trends in green space planning appear to have played a role but we find shrinking cities may leverage green space to meet unique needs. These findings contribute to the literature by addressing how shrinkage affects not only vacant areas but also overall green space planning, as well as suggesting that general green space planning studies should consider demographic change as a relevant context factor.

Traditional planning practice, in its essence, usually pursues urban growth, and is more comfortable dealing with population increase and other growth dynamics than with population decline and what ensues. The main goal of this article is to assess local planning attitudes in Portugal towards demographic change, and in particular towards population decrease, in terms of housing development. In order to do so, a comparative content analysis of municipal director plans (PDM) – Planos Diretores Municipais – of the fourteen Portuguese cities that shrank prevalently and persistently across both conjoining periods 1991– 2001–2011 was completed using a simple matrix of analysis. The qualitative analysis of the regulations of these PDMs showed that aspects of population decrease and shrinkage in relation to housing development are gradually entering local planning practice, though there is not yet an overall intelligible strategy. In Portugal, demographic change and housing development are only just starting to come together in local spatial planning.