Perceptual decision making is believed to be driven by the accumulation of sensory evidence following stimulus encoding. More controversially, some studies report that neural activity preceding the stimulus also affects the decision process. We used a multivariate pattern classification approach for the analysis of the human electroencephalogram (EEG) to decode choice outcomes in a perceptual decision task from spatially and temporally distributed patterns of brain signals. When stimuli provided discriminative information, choice outcomes were predicted by neural activity following stimulus encoding; when stimuli provided no discriminative information, choice outcomes were predicted by neural activity preceding the stimulus. Moreover, in the absence of discriminative information, the recent choice history primed the choices on subsequent trials. A diffusion model fitted to the choice probabilities and response time distributions showed that the starting point of the evidence accumulation process was shifted toward the previous choice, consistent with the hypothesis that choice priming biases the accumulation process toward a decision boundary. This bias is reflected in prestimulus brain activity, which, in turn, becomes predictive of future decisions. Our results provide a model of how non-stimulus-driven decision making in humans could be accomplished on a neural level.

Research suggests that visual short-term memory (VSTM) has both an item capacity, of around 4 items, and an information capacity. We characterize the information capacity limits of VSTM using a task in which observers discriminated the orientation of a single probed item in displays consisting of 1, 2, 3, or 4 orthogonally oriented Gabor patch stimuli that were presented in noise for 50 ms, 100 ms, 150 ms, or 200 ms. The observed capacity limitations are well described by a sample-size model, which predicts invariance of ∑(i)(d'(i))² for displays of different sizes and linearity of (d'(i))² for displays of different durations. Performance was the same for simultaneous and sequentially presented displays, which implicates VSTM as the locus of the observed invariance and rules out explanations that ascribe it to divided attention or stimulus encoding. The invariance of ∑(i)(d'(i))² is predicted by the competitive interaction theory of Smith and Sewell (2013), which attributes it to the normalization of VSTM traces strengths arising from competition among stimuli entering VSTM.

Evidence accumulation models like the diffusion model are increasingly used by researchers to identify the contributions of sensory and decisional factors to the speed and accuracy of decision-making. Drift rates, decision criteria, and nondecision times estimated from such models provide meaningful estimates of the quality of evidence in the stimulus, the bias and caution in the decision process, and the duration of nondecision processes. Recently, Dutilh et al. (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review 26, 1051–1069, 2019) carried out a large-scale, blinded validation study of decision models using the random dot motion (RDM) task. They found that the parameters of the diffusion model were generally well recovered, but there was a pervasive failure of selective influence, such that manipulations of evidence quality, decision bias, and caution also affected estimated nondecision times. This failure casts doubt on the psychometric validity of such estimates. Here we argue that the RDM task has unusual perceptual characteristics that may be better described by a model in which drift and diffusion rates increase over time rather than turn on abruptly. We reanalyze the Dutilh et al. data using models with abrupt and continuous-onset drift and diffusion rates and find that the continuous-onset model provides a better overall fit and more meaningful parameter estimates, which accord with the known psychophysical properties of the RDM task. We argue that further selective influence studies that fail to take into account the visual properties of the evidence entering the decision process are likely to be unproductive.

The circular diffusion model is extended to provide a theory of the speed and accuracy of continuous outcome color decisions and used to characterize eye-movement decisions about the hues of noisy color patches in an isoluminant, equidiscriminability color space. Heavy-tailed distributions of decision outcomes were found with high levels of chromatic noise, similar to those found in visual working memory studies with high memory loads. Decision times were longer for less accurate decisions, in agreement with the slow error property typically found in difficult 2-choice tasks. Decision times were shorter, and responses were more accurate in parts of the space corresponding to nameable color categories, although the number and locations of the categories varied among participants. We show that these findings can be predicted by a theory of across-trial variability in the quality of the evidence entering the decision process, represented mathematically by the drift rate of the diffusion process. The heavy-tailed distributions of decision outcomes and the slow-error pattern can be predicted by either of 2 models of drift rate. One model is based on encoding failures and the other is based on a nonlinear transformation of the stimulus space. Both models predict highly inaccurate stimulus representations on some trials, leading to heavy-tailed distributions and slow errors. The color-category effects were successfully modeled as stimulus biases in a similarity-choice framework, in which the drift rate is the vector sum of the encoded metric and categorical representations of the stimulus.