Discrepancies between ex-ante energy performance assessment and actual consumption of buildings hinder the development of energy performance contracting (EPC). To address this issue, uncertainty integration in simulation as well as measurement and verification (M&V) strategies have been studied. In this article, we propose a methodology, combining detailed energy performance simulation and M&V anticipation. Statistical studies using Monte-Carlo analysis allow a guaranteed consumption limit to be evaluated according to a given risk. Adjustment and verification procedures are also derived from the simulation results in relation to an optimised measurement plan. The complete process has been tested on a refurbishment project allowing the decrease of the difference between the guaranteed consumption limit and the reference energy consumption from 25 % to 15 % of reference consumption.

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