Land cover and population is key in considering sustainable management of the environment. An assessment focusing on the two may aid planning for sustainable management of the ecosystems. This is particularly vital for the water tower ecosystems which are extremely vulnerable. This paper provides a scientific assessment on the extent of land cover change in Mau Water Tower Ecosystem from 1986 to 2015 using satellite images. It analyzes the implications of observed population dynamics and forecasts the extent of land cover change in this resource. The results indicate a sharp increase in the area covered by grassland with a drastic decline in forest cover. Cropland showed marked fluctuations during the entire period. The change in forest cover had a very strong significant negative relationship with the rapid population increase. Forecast on land cover change, based on a “Business as Usual” (BAU) scenario, indicated further decline in forest cover and an increase in the area covered by grassland. The results of the study suggest that land cover change and population growth within the water towers are closely interlinked and cause significant effects on these ecosystems. These findings lay the foundation for a review of conservation and agricultural policies in order to enhance sustainable management of Mau Water Tower.