We consider a risk model with a counting process whose intensity is a Markovian shot-noise process, to resolve one of the disadvantages of the Cramér–Lundberg model, namely the constant intensity of the Poisson process. Due to this structure, we can apply the theory of piecewise deterministic Markov processes on a multivariate process containing the intensity and the reserve process, which allows us to identify a family of martingales. Eventually, we use change of measure techniques to derive an upper bound for the ruin probability in this model. Exploiting a recurrent structure of the shot-noise process, even the asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability can be determined.
In this paper, we consider discounted penalty functions, also called Gerber-Shiu functions, in a Markovian shot-noise environment. At first, we exploit the underlying structure of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs) to show that these penalty functions solve certain partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs). Since these equations cannot be solved exactly, we develop a numerical scheme that allows us to determine an approximation of such functions. These numerical solutions can be identified with penalty functions of continuous-time Markov chains with finite state space. Finally, we show the convergence of the corresponding generators over suitable sets of functions to prove that these Markov chains converge weakly against the original PDMP. That gives us that the numerical approximations converge to the discounted penalty functions of the original Markovian shot-noise environment.
We consider a risk model with a counting process whose intensity is a Markovian shot-noise process, to resolve one of the disadvantages of the Cramér-Lundberg model, namely the constant jump intensity of the Poisson process. Due to this structure, we can apply the theory of PDMPs on a multivariate process containing the intensity and the reserve process, which allows us to identify a family of martingales. Eventually, we use change of measure techniques to derive an upper bound for the ruin probability in this model. Exploiting a recurrent structure of the shot-noise process, even the asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability can be determined.
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