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Following the severe financial crises of the 1990s and early 2000s, substantial efforts have been undertaken in Russia and Turkey to diversify and deepen the financial systems. However, despite unquestionable improvements, financial deepening in Russia and Turkey has taken place at a slower pace than in other major emerging economies. Our paper highlights that this is in part a consequence of a highly volatile economic environment and deep-seated institutional and structural bottlenecks. Though authorities in both countries have committed to sounder economic policies and have implemented important structural reforms to improve the institutional environment and overcome structural weaknesses, over time reform fatigue has gradually taken hold. As a consequence significant gaps and weaknesses in the institutional and business environments still characterize, to a different degree, Russia and Turkey. These factors have not only slowed the development of the financial system as a whole, but have also contributed to the build-up of key vulnerabilities, which have come to the fore more recently in the context of a less supportive external environment.
This paper assesses the transmission of monetary policy in a large Bayesian vector autoregression based on the approach proposed by Banbura, Giannone and Reichlin (2010). The paper analyzes the impact of monetary policy shocks in the United States and Canada not only on a range of domestic aggregates, trade flows, and exchange rates, but also foreign investment income. The analysis provides three main results. First, a surprise monetary policy action has a statistically and economically significant impact on both gross and net foreign investment income flows in both countries. Against the background of growing foreign wealth and investment income, this result provides preliminary evidence that foreign balance-sheet channels might play an increasingly important role for monetary transmission. Second, the impact of monetary policy on foreign investment income flows differs considerably across asset categories and over time, suggesting that the investment instruments and the currency denomination of a country's foreign assets and liabilities are potentially relevant for the way in which monetary policy affects the domestic economy. Finally, the results support existing evidence on the effectiveness of large vector autoregressions and the Bayesian shrinkage approach in addressing the curse of dimensionality and eliminating price and exchange rate puzzles.
This article studies the way in which international financial integration affects the domestic transmission of monetary policy in a standard New Keynesian open economy model. It extends Woodford's (2010) model to a framework, in which not only a global integration of goods and factor markets, but also financial markets might matter for the monetary transmission mechanism. The article considers two broad types of experiments meant to capture financial integration, a decrease in the costs of international asset trading and an increase in the level of gross foreign asset holdings. The main finding is that none of the analyzed forms of financial integration undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy in influencing domestic output and inflation. On the contrary, under a wide array of parameterizations, and even in an environment where the exchange rate pass‐through elasticity is very low and the Home country's traded goods sector is very small compared to world markets, monetary policy is more, rather than less, effective as the positive impact of strengthened exchange rate and wealth channels more than offsets the negative impact of weakened interest rate channels. Monetary policy is most effective in simulations interacting the highest degrees of the two forms of financial integration.
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