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Under China’s goal of “carbon neutrality”, appropriate ecological governance is crucial for upgrading the industrial structure, and too strict or loose governance will have a negative effect. In order to find the optimal range for ecological governance efforts, the concept of the industrial low-carbon index was defined based on the comparison of industrial carbon emissions and output value. The industrial structure was measured from two dimensions: overall upgrading and internal optimization of the industry. We innovatively use multiple indicators to represent the core explanatory variables and use the coefficient of variation method to calculate them. A threshold regression model for ecological governance and industrial structure based on the above indicator system was built, using indicator data from 288 cities in China over the past 15 years for empirical analysis. The study found that (1) ecological governance has a threshold effect on the overall upgrading and internal optimization of the industrial structure, and overall efforts need to be increased for ecological governance; (2) the governance intensity for different cities needs to be determined according to their economic levels and local conditions; and (3) the industrial structure gap among cities will gradually narrow, and the overall development tends to be balanced.

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