Climate change caused by anthropogenic activities has generated a variety of research focusing on investigating the past climate, predicting the future climate and quantifying the change in climate extreme events by using different climate models. Climate extreme events are valuable to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on human activities, agriculture and economy and are also useful to monitor the climate change on global scale. Here, a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation is used to study the future variations in the temperature extreme indices, particularly change in frequency of warm and cold spells duration over Pakistan. The analyses are done on the basis of simulating two 30 years simulations with the Hadley Center's RCM PRECIS, at a horizontal resolution of 50 km. Simulation for the period 1961-1990 represents the recent climate and simulation for the period 2071-2100 represents the future climate. These simulations are driven by lateral boundary conditions from HadAM3P GCM of Hadley centre UK. For the validation of model, observed mean, maximum and minimum temperatures for the period 1961-1990 at all the available stations in Pakistan are first averaged and are then compared with the PRECIS averaged grid-box data. Also the observed monthly gridded data set of Climate Research Unit (UK) data is used to validate the model. Temperature indices in the base period as well as in future are then calculated and the corresponding change is observed. Percentile based spatial change S. u. Islam (B) · N. Rehman · M. M. Sheikh Global Change 36 Climatic Change (2009) 94:35-45of temperature shows that in summer, increase in daily minimum temperature is more as compared to the increase of daily maximum temperature whereas in winter, the change in maximum temperature is high. The occurrence of annual cold spells shows significantly decreasing trend while for warm spells there is slight increasing trend over Pakistan.

Changes in air temperature and precipitation can modify snowmelt-driven runoff in snowmelt-dominated regimes. This study focuses on climate change impacts on the snow hydrology of the Fraser River basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). Statistically downscaled forcing datasets based on 12 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are used to drive VIC for two 30-yr time periods, a historical baseline (1980–2009) and future projections (2040–69: 2050s), under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The ensemble-based VIC simulations reveal widespread and regionally coherent spatial changes in snowfall, snow water equivalent (SWE), and snow cover over the FRB by the 2050s. While the mean precipitation is projected to increase slightly, the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is projected to decrease by nearly 50% in the 2050s compared to the baseline. Snow accumulation and snow-covered area are projected to decline substantially across the FRB, particularly in the Rocky Mountains. Onset of springtime snowmelt in the 2050s is projected to be nearly 25 days earlier than historically, yielding more runoff in the winter and spring for the Fraser River at Hope, BC, and earlier recession to low-flow volumes in summer. The ratio of snowmelt contribution to runoff decreases by nearly 20% in the Stuart and Nautley subbasins of the FRB in the 2050s. The decrease in SWE and loss of snow cover is greater from low to midelevations than in high elevations, where temperatures remain sufficiently cold for precipitation to fall as snow.

With its headwaters in the water towers of the western Cordillera of North America, the Fraser River is one of the continent’s mightiest rivers by annual flows, supplies vital freshwater resources to populous downstream locations, and sustains the world’s largest stocks of sockeye salmon along with four other salmon species. Here we show the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model’s ability to reproduce accurately observed trends in daily streamflow for the Fraser River’s main stem and six of its major tributaries over 1949-2006 when air temperatures rose by 1.4 °C while annual precipitation amounts remained stable. Rapidly declining mountain snowpacks and earlier melt onsets result in a 10-day advance of the Fraser River’s spring freshet with subsequent reductions in summer flows when up-river salmon migrations occur. Identification of the sub-basins driving the Fraser River’s most significant changes provides a measure of seasonal predictability of future floods or droughts in a changing climate.

Quantification of climate change impacts on the thermal regimes of rivers in British Columbia (BC) is crucial given their importance to aquatic ecosystems. Using the Air2Stream model, we investigate the impact of both air temperature and streamflow changes on river water temperatures from 1950 to 2015 across BC’s 234,000 km 2 Fraser River Basin (FRB). Model results show the FRB’s summer water temperatures rose by nearly 1.0 °C during 1950–2015 with 0.47 °C spread across 17 river sites. For most of these sites, such increases in average summer water temperature have doubled the number of days exceeding 20 °C, the water temperature that, if exceeded, potentially increases the physiological stress of salmon during migration. Furthermore, river sites, especially those in the upper and middle FRB, show significant associations between Pacific Ocean teleconnections and regional water temperatures. A multivariate linear regression analysis reveals that air temperature primarily controls simulated water temperatures in the FRB by capturing ~80% of its explained variance with secondary impacts through river discharge. Given such increases in river water temperature, salmon returning to spawn in the Fraser River and its tributaries are facing continued and increasing physical challenges now and potentially into the future.

This sensitivity study applies the offline Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) version 3.6 to simulate snowpack evolution in idealized topography using observations at Likely, British Columbia, Canada over 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009. A strategy for a subgrid-scale snow (SSS) parameterization is developed to incorporate two key features: ten elevation bands at 100 m intervals to capture air temperature lapse rates, and five slope angles on four aspects to resolve solar radiation impacts on the evolution of snow depth and SWE. Simulations reveal strong elevational dependencies of snow depth and SWE when adjusting temperatures using a moist adiabatic lapse rate with elevation, with 26% peak SWE differences between that at the average elevation versus the mean of the remainder of the elevation bands. Differences in peak SWE on north- and south-facing slopes increase from 3.0 mm at 10° slope to 17.9 mm at 50° slope. When applied to elevation, slope and aspect combinations derived from a high-resolution digital elevation model, elevation dominates the control of peak SWE values. Inclusion of the range of SSS effects into a regional climate model will improve snowpack and hydrological simulations of western North America's snow-dominated, mountainous watersheds.