In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper, we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In particular, we use the chatter from Twitter.com to forecast box-office revenues for movies. We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors. We further demonstrate how sentiments extracted from Twitter can be further utilized to improve the forecasting power of social media.

Social media generates a prodigious wealth of real-time content at an incessant rate. From all the content that people create and share, only a few topics manage to attract enough attention to rise to the top and become temporal trends which are displayed to users.The question of what factors cause the formation and persistence of trends is an important one that has not been answered yet. In this paper, we conduct an intensive study of trending topics on Twitter and provide a theoretical basis for the formation, persistence and decay of trends. We also demonstrate empirically how factors such as user activity and number of followers do not contribute strongly to trend creation and its propagation. In fact, we find that the resonance of the content with the users of the social network plays a major role in causing trends.

The ever-increasing amount of information flowing through Social Media forces the members of these networks to compete for attention and influence by relying on other people to spread their message. A large study of information propagation within Twitter reveals that the majority of users act as passive information consumers and do not forward the content to the network. Therefore, in order for individuals to become influential they must not only obtain attention and thus be popular, but also overcome user passivity. We propose an algorithm that determines the influence and passivity of users based on their information forwarding activity. An evaluation performed with a 2.5 million user dataset shows that our influence measure is a good predictor of URL clicks, outperforming several other measures that do not explicitly take user passivity into account. We demonstrate that high popularity does not necessarily imply high influence and vice-versa.

Interaction graphs are ubiquitous in many fields such as bioinformatics, sociology and physical sciences. There have been many studies in the literature targeted at studying and mining these graphs. However, almost all of them have studied these graphs from a static point of view. The study of the evolution of these graphs over time can provide tremendous insight on the behavior of entities, communities and the flow of information among them. In this work, we present an eventbased characterization of critical behavioral patterns for temporally varying interaction graphs. We use nonoverlapping snapshots of interaction graphs and develop a framework for capturing and identifying interesting events from them. We use these events to characterize complex behavioral patterns of individuals and communities over time. We show how semantic information can be incorporated to reason about community-behavior events. We also demonstrate the application of behavioral patterns for the purposes of modeling evolution, link prediction and influence maximization. Finally, we present a diffusion model for evolving networks, based on our framework.

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.