Maintaining food production while reducing agricultural nitrogen pollution is a grand challenge under the threats of global climate change, which has exerted negative impacts on agricultural sustainability. How global agricultural nitrogen use and loss respond to climate change on temporal and spatial scale is rarely understood. Here we show that climate change leads to small temporal but substantial spatial changes in cropland nitrogen use and losses across global regions based on historical data for the period 1961-2018 from 150 countries. Increases of yield, nitrogen surplus and nitrogen use e ciency (NUE) are identi ed in 24% of countries, while reductions are observed for the remaining 76% of countries, as a result of climate change in 2018. Changes of cropland area per capita of rural population (CAPRP) further intensify the variations of nitrogen use and pollution in global croplands. Yet, improving farmers' practices with changes of CAPRP can facilitate climate change adaptation, by which global cropland NUE could be increased by one-third in 2100 compared to 2018 under future shared socioeconomic pathways. Our results would be of great signi cance to sustain global agriculture as well as eliminate national inequalities on food production and agricultural pollution control. Full TextGlobal climate change has led to an increase in both average ambient temperatures observed and the frequency of extremek weather events, including dry-hot and precipitation extremes 1-3 These changes not only threaten human and ecosystem health, but also adversely affect agricultural production 4, 5 . Mitigating the negative impacts of climate change on agriculture is a grand challenge, in the context of safeguarding food security for a growing and increasingly wealthy global population.Nitrogen (N) fertilizer use has fed about half of the global population 6 ; however, only N use in croplands has exceeded the safe planetary boundary, leading to substantial environmental problems such as air and water pollution, biodiversity loss, soil acidi cation and climate change (ozone layer depletion and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emission) 7, 8 . Currently, over 100 million tonnes of fertilizer N is applied to global croplands annually and over half of the N is lost to the environment, leading to an average N use e ciency (NUE) below 50%, a critical indicator for agricultural sustainability 8,9 . So far, climate change impacts have been rarely considered when developing management strategies for sustainable agricultural N use, as the focus has been primarily on the climate effects of N fertilizer use, such as N 2 O emissions 10 . Yet, climate change can affect agricultural N use and losses, for instance, and warming temperatures can increase ammonia emissions from croplands 11,12 .The warming climate has been shown to aggravate N pollution in Australia 13 . Eutrophication will become more prevalent during the 21 st century due to precipitation pattern changes 14 .Here, we quanti ed the impact of climate change (annual mean temperature, annu...
Urbanization has been considered as an antagonist to food security and nature restoration due to land-taking by urban expansion. However, if urbanization was undertaken with a focus on integrated urban–rural development, it could in face release land areas globally. Here show that domestic rural-to-urban migration with urbanization can support a global population with 2 billion more people, while requiring 49 million hectares of less built-up lands due to higher population density in urban relative to rural areas, over the period from 2020 to 2050. If no urbanization would occur, currently predicted growth trends in global population would require an additional 46 million hectares of lands. If cross-countries rural-to-urban migration is supported, land release could be increased up to 67 million hectares. This amount could satisfy 51% of global cropland demand in 2050, and as an additional benefit, reduce cropland fragmentation. If the land areas released were set aside for nature restoration, 4,488 more species could be protected. As a further co-benefit, additional carbon sequestration of 15 billion tonnes could be achieved over the period from 2020 to 2050. Policies to promote cross-countries rural-to-urban migration and management of released lands would help to benefits food security and natural restoration.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.