In 2021–2022, there were numerous outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) affecting cattle farms across Thailand. This circumstance was the country's first encounter with an LSD outbreak. Thus, a better understanding of LSD epidemiology is necessary. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal patterns of the LSD outbreaks in dairy farming areas. Data from LSD outbreak investigations collected from dairy farms in Khon Kean province, northeastern Thailand, were analyzed using spatio-temporal models including space-time permutation, Poisson, and Bernoulli models. LSD outbreaks were found in 133 out of 152 dairy farms from May to July, 2021. The majority of dairy farms (n = 102) were affected by the LSD outbreaks in June. The overall herd attack, morbidity and mortality rates were 87, 31, and 0.9%, respectively. According to the results of all models, the most likely clusters were found in the northern part of the study area. The space-time permutation and Poisson model identified 15 and 6 spatio-temporal outbreak clusters, respectively, while the Bernoulli model detected only one cluster. The most likely clusters from those models cover radii of 1.59, 4.51, and 4.44 km, respectively. All farms included in the cluster identified by the space-time permutation model were also included in the cluster identified by the Poisson model, implying that both models detected the same outbreak area. Furthermore, the study results suggested that farmers who own farms within a one km radius of the LSD outbreak farm should be advised to implement more stringent insect vector control measures to prevent disease spread. This study provides better insights into the spatio-temporal pattern of clusters of LSD in the outbreak area. The findings of this study can support authorities in formulating strategies to prevent and control future outbreaks as well as prioritizing resource allocation to high-risk areas.
Background and Aim: Outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) have resulted in substantial economic losses to the dairy industry in Thailand. This study aimed to determine the influence of LSD outbreaks on monthly milk production levels. Materials and Methods: Milk production for dairy farms located in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand, belonging to the Khon Kaen Dairy Cooperative, was affected by LSD outbreaks from May to August of 2021. The resulting data were analyzed using general linear mixed models. Results: It was estimated that the LSD outbreak caused economic losses totaling 2,413,000 Thai Baht (68,943 USD) over the outbreak period. The monthly farm milk production level in May differed from the levels in June and August. Dairy farmers experienced losses between 8.23 and 9.96 tons of milk each month, which equated to between 4180 and 14,440 Thai Baht (119.43 and 412.57 USD) in monthly income. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that LSD outbreaks on dairy farms resulted in significant farm milk production losses. Our findings will increase awareness among authorities and stakeholders in the dairy industry of Thailand, as well as to assist in the prevention of future LSD outbreaks and minimize the negative impacts of LSD. Keywords: dairy, lumpy skin disease, milk production, outbreaks, Thailand.
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