BackgroundIn the absence of effective treatments or vaccines, non-pharmaceutical interventions are the mainstay of control in the COVID-19 pandemic. Refugee populations in displacement camps live under adverse conditions that are likely to favour the spread of disease. To date, only a few cases of COVID-19 have appeared in refugee camps, and whether feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions can prevent the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in such settings remains untested.MethodsWe constructed the first spatially explicit agent-based model of a COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp, and applied it to evaluate feasible non-pharmaceutical interventions. We parameterised the model using published data on the transmission rates and progression dynamics of COVID-19, and demographic and spatial data from Europe’s largest refugee camp, the Moria displacement camp on Lesbos, Greece. We simulated COVID-19 epidemics with and without four feasible interventions.ResultsSpatial subdivision of the camp (‘sectoring’) was able to ‘flatten the curve’, reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with the efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection, and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly in order to be maximally effective. Lockdowns had only small effects on COVID-19 dynamics.ConclusionsAgent-based models are powerful tools for forecasting the spread of disease in spatially structured and heterogeneous populations. Our findings suggest that feasible interventions can slow the spread of COVID-19 in a refugee camp setting, and provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies. Our model can be modified to study other closed populations at risk from COVID-19 or future epidemics.

Refugee camp populations are expected to be vulnerable to COVID-19 due to overcrowding, unsanitary conditions, and inadequate medical facilities. Because there has been no COVID-19 outbreak in a refugee camp to date, the potential for nonpharmaceutical interventions to slow the spread of COVID-19 in refugee camps remains untested. We used an agent-based model to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in the Moria refugee camp, and we studied the effects of feasible interventions. Subdividing the camp ('sectoring') "flattened the curve," reducing peak infection by up to 70% and delaying peak infection by up to several months. The use of face masks coupled with efficient isolation of infected individuals reduced the overall incidence of infection and sometimes averted epidemics altogether. These interventions must be implemented quickly to be effective. Lockdowns had little effect on COVID-19 dynamics. Our findings provide an evidence base for camp managers planning intervention strategies against COVID-19 or future epidemics.

Background Refugees in humanitarian settings commonly experience many health needs and barriers to access healthcare; health data from these settings are infrequently reported, preventing effective healthcare provision. This report describes health needs of refugees in Moria Camp on Lesvos, Greece—Europe’s largest refugee camp. Methods A set of routinely collected service data of 18 131 consultations of 11 938 patients, attending a primary care clinic in the camp over 6 months in 2019–20, was analysed retrospectively, focusing on chronic health conditions. Results The most frequent chronic conditions were musculoskeletal pain (25.1%), mental health (15.9%), cardiac (12.7%) and endocrine conditions (8.9%). In all, 70.4% of consultations were for acute health problems, with high rates of injuries and wounds (20.8%), respiratory infections (12.5%), gastroenteritis (10.7%) and skin problems (9.7%), particularly scabies. Conclusions The prevalence of acute and chronic health problems is high in this setting, with some likely attributable to the deplorable living conditions in the camp. Despite its magnitude, the interpretability of routine health data is limited. A research agenda is identified, and a framework for chronic disease management in refugee camps is proposed.

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