The logit model was used to predict the number of fire-days in the Whitecourt Forest of Alberta. The database used included fire (1) and no-fire (0) observations for fire season days between April and October for the 1986 through 1990 period. There were 8,009 observations during this period of which 157 were fire observations. Using four variables, we were able to predict 79.0% of the fire-days and 81.5% of the no-fire-days. The model, Zi=-8.5171+7.6590xAREAi+0.7367xDISTRICTi+2.0478xBUIi+3.9563xISIi, failed to predict 37 of the fire-days and produced 29 ''false alarms''. When this model was tested on fire occurrence data from the Whitecourt Forest for 1991 and 1992 fire seasons it was correct 74.1% of the time. The management implications and limitations of this study are also discussed in this paper.

The moisture content of live and dead foliage and roundwood on 30 lodgepole pine and 27 white spruce trees was determinedduring the summer of 1987. Sample trees were selectedrandomly throughout Alberta, Canada, without regard for weather. Five sub-samples were taken for each of the five roundwood diameter size classes (< 0.5cm,0.5 - 1 cm, 1.0- .0cm,3.0- 5.0cm, 5.0-7.0cm and 7.0-10.0 cm). Moisture content of live biomass was quite similar between species for the same fuel size class, regardless of when sampling occurred. Moisture content variation within trees was about half of the variation between trees for the same fuel size class. The coefficient of variation in moisture was much less for live material (generally < 0.3) than for dead biomass (always > 0.6). Average fuel moisture content for populations of lodgepole pine and white spruce trees may be estimated to within + 10% at the 68% probability level by sampling less than 20 trees and with only 3 fuel sub-samples per tree.