An attempt has been carried out to assess the efficacy of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in predicting the genesis and intensification events of Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Fani (26 April – 04 May 2019) over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). WRF model has been conducted on a single domain of 10 km horizontal resolution using the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) FNL (final) data (0.250 × 0.250). According to the model simulated outcome analysis, the model is capable of predicting the Minimum Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) and Maximum Sustainable Wind Speed (MSWS) pattern reasonably well, despite some deviations. The model has forecasted the Lowest Central Pressure (LCP) of 919 hPa and the MSWS of 70 ms-1 based on 0000 UTC of 26 April. Except for the model run based on 0000 UTC of 26 April, the simulated values of LCP are relatively higher than the observations. According to the statistical analysis, MSLP and MSWS at 850 hPa level demonstrate a significantly greater influence on Tropical Cyclone (TC) formation and intensification process than any other parameters. The model can predict the intensity features well enough, despite some uncertainty regarding the proper lead time of the model run. Reduced lead time model run, particularly 24 to 48 hr, can be chosen to forecast the genesis and intensification events of TC with minimum uncertainty. Journal of Engineering Science 12(3), 2021, 85-100

Simulation of Super Cyclonic Storm (SuCS) Amphan (2020) has been carried out as a case study to analyze the sensitivity of Initial Condition (IC) and Horizontal Resolution (HR) on the intensity, track, and landfall predictions of the Tropical Cyclones (TCs). The results suggest that the IC and HR have a significant impact on TC simulations. Diminishing the HR in simulation results in a comparatively higher severity of the system. The simulation with a reduced lead time and a comparatively smaller HR has forecasted the Minimum Central Pressure (MCP) distribution reasonably well. In comparison to the observations, the reduced lead time model run with higher resolution has forecasted the Maximum Sustained Wind Speed (MSWS) distribution precisely. According to the statistical analysis, the continual reduction of lead time in simulation with the HR of 27 km has simulated better track and landfall positions than other resolutions. Thus, the combination of reduced lead time and higher resolution in simulation may be considered for the proper track and landfall forecasting. Dhaka Univ. J. Sci. 69(3): 202-211, 2022 (June)