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ore than a dozen research groups worldwide have started analysing waste water for the new coronavirus as a way to estimate the total number of infections in a community, given that most people will not be tested. The method could also be used to detect the coronavirus if it returns to communities, say scientists. So far, researchers have found traces of the virus in sewage in the Netherlands, the United States and Sweden. Analysing waste water-used water that goes through the drainage system to a treatment facility-is one way that researchers can track infectious diseases that are excreted in urine or faeces, such as SARS-CoV-2. One treatment plant can capture waste water from more than one million people, says Gertjan Medema, a microbiologist at KWR Water Research Institute in Nieuwegein, the Wastewater testing could also be used as an early-warning sign if the virus returns.

Estimates of COVID-19's case fatality rate-the proportion of infected people who die-suggest that the coronavirus is less deadly than the pathogens behind other large-scale outbreaks, such as those of SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome) and Ebola. But it seems to spread more easily. Calculations of the virus's 'basic reproduction number' (R 0) suggest that each infected person will pass the virus to an average of 2-2.5 people. Like the case fatality rate, R 0 is an estimate that varies considerably, and is likely to be revised. 0 2 1 3 5 4

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