Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in Kyrgyzstan. There have been negative spillover effects in agriculture. This study aims to assess the climate change impacts on cropland suitability in Kyrgyzstan. We used the random forest algorithm to develop a model that captures the effects of multiple climate and environment factors at a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The model was then applied in the scenario analysis for an understanding of how climate change affects cropland distribution. The potential high-quality cropland was found to be included in existing croplands, while the remaining were distributed around the Chu-Talas valley, the Issyk-kul area, and the Fergana valley. These potential high-quality croplands comprise grasslands (47.1%) and croplands (43.7%). In the future, the potential high-quality cropland exhibited inland trends at the periphery of original cropland category, with grassland and cropland as the primary land components. Due to climate change, potential high-quality cropland is expected to gradually reduce from the 2050s to the 2070s, exhibiting the largest reduction in potential high-quality areas for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Therefore, the short- and long-term adaptation strategies are needed for prioritizing the croplands to ensure food security and agricultural resilience.

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<p>Due to the land degradation, the land use conflicts have intensified, and there is an increasing necessity to adapt sustainable land management. Sustainable land management deals with the demands for land in terms of not only human society but also the nature conservation and biodiversity. To persue and realize sustainable land management, the indicators and evaluation system are necessary, and ecosystem services has emerged as the proper indicator for sustainable land management. This study focused on the balance between the demand and supply of ecosystem services. If the balance between them was maintained or supply exceeded demand, the land can be assessed to be managed sustainably. In this study, CO<sub>2</sub> sequestration, Heat mitigation, and water provision were assessed as ecosystem service in South Korea. The supply of each ecosystem service was evaluated by using related models which had been developed and used widely in previous studies. The demand of each ecosystem service was defined based on specific figures which had already suggested as policy goals in South Kroea in purpose of drawing social consensus. Afterwards, the ecosystem services supply and demand ratio (ESDR) were calculated to show the balance between supply and demand quantified by region. As a result, the exessive demand for CO2 sequestration service was found compared to supply. The supply of heat mitigation service was found to be sufficient for the demand nationwide. However, in specific areas such as cities, the demand was higher than the supply. In the case of water provision service, the national demand was being met by some regional suppliers. Through these results, it is possible to find out the ecosystem services that need to be supplemented spatially and regionally, and ultimately, it is expected to support the establishment of urban space, green space, and environmental planning at the regional and national levels.</p>

Abstract:The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume based on the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, 5 th forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from 131 m /ha. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinus densiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.