The report was commissioned by a long-term investment manager interested in sustainability. Any views expressed are the authors'.The authors are extremely grateful for the excellent research support and assistance we received from Carl Cervone, Kimathi Muiruri, and Ridglea Willard. We also extend deep thanks to the following colleagues who provided peer reviews of all or parts of the report:

The green energy transition will be mineral intensive. Manufacturing wind turbines, solar panels, geothermal heat pumps, and batteries is set to significantly increase demand for so-called "critical" minerals. • Forecasts of increased demand for critical minerals-including as a result of post-COVID-19 stimulus plans-prompt high expectations in mineral-rich countries and suggest promising opportunities for developing countries. • However, projects to increase the primary extraction of critical minerals rest on bullish forecasts and uncertain terrain, because of factors including ever-adapting technology leading to increased mineral performance; substitutions due to high mineral prices or supply scares; reduced primary extraction due to increased recycling, reuse, and the circular economy; and greater reliance on agromining and biomining. • Investments in the primary extraction of critical minerals could become obsolete and economically stranded. Over-investing in production may outstrip demand and lead to minimal benefits for many countries. • Governments, international actors, and mining advocates seeking to optimize the value of green energy mineral reserves should heed caution when pursuing and promoting the mining of critical minerals. We provide specific recommendations starting on page 7.

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