Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km2) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km2 (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.

Twenty-five years ago, the snow leopard Uncia uncia, an endangered large cat, was eliminated from what is now Sagarmatha National Park (SNP). Heavy hunting pressure depleted that area of most medium–large mammals, before it became a park. After three decades of protection, the cessation of hunting and the recovery of wild ungulate populations, snow leopards have recently returned (four individuals). We have documented the effects of the return of the snow leopard on the population of its main wild prey, the Himalayan tahr Hemitragus jemlahicus, a ‘near-threatened’ caprin. Signs of snow leopard presence were recorded and scats were collected along a fixed trail (130 km) to assess the presence and food habits of the snow leopard in the Park, from 2004 to 2006. Himalayan tahr, the staple of the diet, had a relative occurrence of 48% in summer and 37% in autumn, compared with the next most frequent prey, musk deer Moschus chrysogaster (summer: 20%; autumn: 15%) and cattle (summer: 15%; autumn: 27%). In early summer, the birth rate of tahr (young-to-female ratio: 0.8–0.9) was high. The decrease of this ratio to 0.1–0.2 in autumn implied that summer predation concentrated on young tahr, eventually altering the population by removing the kid cohort. Small populations of wild Caprinae, for example the Himalayan tahr population in SNP, are sensitive to stochastic predation events and may be led to almost local extinction. If predation on livestock keeps growing, together with the decrease of Himalayan tahr, retaliatory killing of snow leopards by local people may be expected, and the snow leopard could again be at risk of local extinction. Restoration of biodiversity through the return of a large predator has to be monitored carefully, especially in areas affected by humans, where the lack of important environmental components, for example key prey species, may make the return of a predator a challenging event

Mammals are threatened with population decline and extinction. Numerous species require immediate conservation intervention. But our ability to identify species on the brink of decline, and to intervene successfully, depends on developing reliable leading indicators of population, community, and environmental change. Classic approaches, such as population and life history assessment, as well as indicator species, trail environmental change. Adaptive behaviors honed by natural selection to respond quickly to environmental changes represent true leading indicators that we can learn to apply to conservation and management. Excellent examples of useful behaviors for conservation include foraging behavior, patch use, and habitat selection. Comparisons among giving-up densities collected in artificial resource patches can effectively indicate the forager's predation costs, its habitat quality, mechanisms of coexistence, and environmental richness. Patterns of adaptive habitat use can similarly reveal the relative value of different types of habitat, the location, and amounts of source versus sink habitat in a landscape, the effects of human disturbance, and projections on future extinction risk. Each behavior is likely to change more quickly than population size. As useful as these and related indicators may be to managers and conservationists, similar behaviors can emerge from different causes, and immediate returns of behavior to fitness may cause rapid evolution of associated morphological and physiological traits. Conservation strategies will thereby often be most effective if they build on research programs targeting the processes influencing adaptive behaviors and that assess whether wild-type or novel behaviors are most likely to sustain populations into the future.

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Abstract:We conducted a status-survey on Snow Leopard Panthera uncia and its main prey, the Blue Sheep Pseudois nayaur, in the Mustang District of Nepal's Annapurna Conservation Area, in 2010 and 2011. Sign transects, covering a total linear distance of 19.4km, revealed an average density of 5.8 signs per kilometer, which compares with those from other Snow Leopard range countries. This also roughly corresponded with the minimum number of three adult Snow Leopards we obtained from nine remote cameras, deployed to monitor areas of c. 75km 2 in extent. We obtained 42 pictures of Snow Leopards during nine capture events. We conclude that Mustang harbors at least three adult Snow Leopards, and probably more, along with a healthy Blue Sheep population (a total of 528 individuals, along 37.6km of Snow Leopard transect lines). We suggest that people-wildlife conflicts exist but that the local people tolerate Snow Leopards based on their Buddhist socio-religious values.