No abstract

Agriculture, more than any other sector, is a provider of temporary jobs. Th e main aim of the paper is to analyze the impact of the temporary contract in agriculture on the probability of remaining employed in this sector. Th ere is used a discrete-time competing risks duration model with two sub-samples, consisting of seasonal contracts and fi xed-term contracts. Th e results show that while the probability of a worker fi nding a job increases with the number of temporary jobs already amassed in his or her career, this probability decreases with the number of interruptions in employment. Th ere is also shown the eff ect of time dependence on the transition probabilities. Whether the temporary contract is seasonal or not, the risks of exiting towards non-employment are greatest for the shortest contracts, but the prospects for fi nding a job do improve thereafter. In the specifi c case of the fi xed-term contract, the chances of converting this to a permanent contract are greater at the legal limit. Finally, the most highly qualifi ed workers are those who leave the agricultural sector. Nevertheless, the risks of exiting are relatively low: agricultural jobs require a specifi c capital which is diffi cult to transfer to other sectors.

n Quel est l'impact des contrats temporaires en agriculture ?Cette recherche s'interroge sur le rôle des contrats temporaires dans la construction des parcours professionnels des salariés agricoles. Globalement, le niveau de capital humain spécifique favorise le maintien en emploi (temporaire) dans le secteur agricole, et les transitions professionnelles sont marquées durablement par la trajectoire passée. Ces résultats proviennent de l'estimation d'un modèle à risques concurrents incluant les facteurs, observés et inobservés, qui influencent les sorties du contrat temporaire.