The Canadian boreal zone provides extractive goods and services (provisioning ecosystem services (PrES)) to domestic and global markets and makes a significant contribution to the Canadian economy. The intensity and location of these extractive activities, however, may positively or negatively affect the availability of other benefits that the Canadian and global society receive from the boreal. Where PrES compete, managing these activities along with their impacts to boreal ecosystems becomes a balancing act between the need for resource extraction and the continued availability of the other benefits from ecosystems. Management measures and policies are more likely to succeed if they are designed with foresight, which means accounting for how demand, a key driver of change in the boreal, may change in the future. To help this process, we present three divergent, yet plausible future scenarios based on the analysis of: (i) the capacity of the boreal to provide wood products, fossil fuels, metals and minerals, and hydropower and other renewables; (ii) past trends (1985–2015) and key events in the demand for these PrES; (iii) the interaction of demand for PrES with other drivers of change to the boreal zone; and (iv) the synergies and trade-offs between PrES. We find that historically and currently the capacity of the boreal to provide these PrES exceeds the amount currently supplied. However, the capacity of different PrES and location of extractive activities are spatially dispersed creating a spatial and temporal patchwork of associated risks to local ecosystem integrity and the supply of non-PrES. In addition, these scenarios suggest that the future of boreal PrES is very uncertain and highly dependent on how other drivers of change (namely governance and geopolitics, societal values and climate change) play out in the future. Given the spatial complexity, we find that the cumulative effect of these drivers (e.g., climate change) will determine what paths unfold for different areas of the boreal, and we conclude that careful consideration and planning must be given to ensure that the balance between PrES and non-PrES is maintained.

Much of Canada’s industrial sector is driven by natural resources and relies heavily on provisioning services supplied by the boreal zone. However, the sometimes intensive processes used by resource-based industries and their associated infrastructure have significantly altered the region, creating concerns over the future socio-ecological health of the boreal zone. Addressing these concerns will require industries reliant on natural resources from the boreal zone to innovate their processes, management, and infrastructure to improve extraction efficiency while contributing to society’s increasing expectations related to sustainability. Here, we explore past, current, and future trends in industrial innovation and infrastructure in the boreal zone for forestry, mining, pulp and paper, oil and gas, and renewable sources of power generation. We assess the role of innovation on the future socio-ecological state of the boreal zone by considering interactions between innovation in industry and infrastructure and other key drivers of change in the boreal, such as atmospheric changes, changing demands for nonprovisioning and provisioning ecosystem services, governance, and demographics and social values. We present future scenarios highlighting three divergent trajectories of change in boreal ecosystems based on past and current states of innovation in industry and infrastructure. We suggest that minimizing impacts of natural resource extraction activities in the boreal zone will only be possible through innovation directly focused on reducing the human footprint on the landscape. Innovation in the information technology sector related to process, management, and end products within these industries and placing greater emphasis on cross-sectoral collaboration will be key to achieving this goal.

The Canadian boreal zone provides ecosystem services from local to global scales. Either directly or indirectly, demands for these services have and will continue to serve as drivers of change in the region. Here we present evidence for past, present, and potential future demand for maintaining nonprovisioning ecosystem services (NPrES), defined as indirect and nonmarketable services obtained from ecosystems as a driver of change in the boreal zone. Our evidence of demand stems from federal and provincial policies, actions by Indigenous peoples, and nongovernmental initiatives that aim to maintain the sustainability of natural resource extraction and ecosystem condition of the boreal. Presently, the demand for NPrES influences decisions related to natural resource development (e.g., forestry) that in turn impacts the condition of the boreal zone. Informed by the present conditions and past trends, three future scenarios to the year 2050 are presented that contrast in their trajectory—status quo, increased demand for NPrES, and decreased demand for NPrES. We also summarize the interactions among other drivers of change in the boreal and the synergies and trade-offs among the different types of demand for NPrES. Ultimately, sustainability of the boreal zone and the ecosystem services it provides will result from a complex suite of interacting drivers of change, where the balance of demands for provisioning and NPrES will continue to influence regional conditions.

The habitat of Bolitotherus cornutus Panzer consists primarily of sporophores of the shelf fungus Fomes fomentarius (L.:Fr.) J. Kickx fil. Each sporophore is discrete and often several are present on a single dead log or standing snag, especially of paper birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh.). An exploratory approach was used to examine habitat use at three scales (the single sporophore, a single log supporting up to several sporophores, and a group of logs supporting sporophores) by modeling incidence of adult B. cornutus. Sporophore volume and decay were important for the beetles at all scales. Patches containing a variety of states of sporophores from alive to dead and decomposing are probably most suitable to B. cornutus. Results are compared with those for the related European beetle Bolitophagus reticulatus (L.), which is similar ecologically and also occupies F. fomentarius sporophores. Résumé-L'habitat deBolitotherus cornutus Panzer est constitué principalement des sporophores de l'amadouvier Fomes fomentarius (L.:Fr.) J. Kickx fil. Chaque sporophore est séparé et il peut y en avoir plusieurs sur un même arbre tombé ou sur un même tronc mort dressé, particulièrement de bouleau à papier (Betula papyrifera Marsh.). Nous avons utilisé une approche exploratoire à trois échelles (un seul sporophore, un seul tronc couvert d'un à plusieurs sporophores, un groupe de troncs possédant des sporophores) pour faire un modèle de la fréquence des adultes de B. cornutus. Le volume et la décomposition des sporophores sont d'importance pour les coléoptères à toutes les échelles. Des parcelles contenant des sporophores de diverses conditions, vivants et en voie de décomposition, sont probablement les plus propices à B. cornutus. Nous comparons nos résultats avec ceux qui ont été obtenus chez le coléoptère européen apparenté Bolitophagus reticulatus (L.) qui possède une écologie similaire et qui vit aussi dans les sporophores de F. fomentarius. [Traduit par la Rédaction]192