Abstract Next-Generation Risk Assessment is defined as an exposure-led, hypothesis-driven risk assessment approach that integrates new approach methodologies (NAMs) to assure safety without the use of animal testing. These principles were applied to a hypothetical safety assessment of 0.1% coumarin in face cream and body lotion. For the purpose of evaluating the use of NAMs, existing animal and human data on coumarin were excluded. Internal concentrations (plasma Cmax) were estimated using a physiologically based kinetic model for dermally applied coumarin. Systemic toxicity was assessed using a battery of in vitro NAMs to identify points of departure (PoDs) for a variety of biological effects such as receptor-mediated and immunomodulatory effects (Eurofins SafetyScreen44 and BioMap Diversity 8 Panel, respectively), and general bioactivity (ToxCast data, an in vitro cell stress panel and high-throughput transcriptomics). In addition, in silico alerts for genotoxicity were followed up with the ToxTracker tool. The PoDs from the in vitro assays were plotted against the calculated in vivo exposure to calculate a margin of safety with associated uncertainty. The predicted Cmax values for face cream and body lotion were lower than all PoDs with margin of safety higher than 100. Furthermore, coumarin was not genotoxic, did not bind to any of the 44 receptors tested and did not show any immunomodulatory effects at consumer-relevant exposures. In conclusion, this case study demonstrated the value of integrating exposure science, computational modeling and in vitro bioactivity data, to reach a safety decision without animal data.

An important question in toxicological risk assessment is whether non-animal New Approach Methodologies (NAMs) can be used to make safety decisions that are protective of human health, without being overly conservative. In this work we propose a core NAM toolbox and workflow for conducting systemic safety assessments for adult consumers. We also present an approach for evaluating how protective and useful the toolbox and workflow are by benchmarking against historical safety decisions. The toolbox includes physiologically-based kinetic (PBK) models to estimate systemic Cmax levels in humans, and three bioactivity platforms, comprising high-throughput transcriptomics, a cell stress panel and in vitro pharmacological profiling, from which points of departure are estimated. A Bayesian model was developed to quantify the uncertainty in the Cmax estimates depending on how the PBK models were parameterised. The feasibility of the evaluation approach was tested using 24 exposure scenarios from 10 chemicals, some of which would be considered high risk from a consumer goods perspective (e.g., drugs that are systemically bioactive) and some low risk (e.g., existing food or cosmetic ingredients). Using novel protectiveness and utility metrics, it was shown that up to 69% (9/13) of the low risk scenarios could be identified as such using the toolbox, whilst being protective against all (5/5) the high-risk ones. The results demonstrated how robust safety decisions could be made without using animal data. This work will enable a full evaluation to assess how protective and useful the toolbox and workflow are across a broader range of chemical exposure scenarios.

Ethical and legal considerations have led to increased use of non-animal methods to evaluate the safety of chemicals for human use. We describe the development and qualification of a physiologically-based kinetics (PBK) model for the cosmetic UV filter ingredient, homosalate, to support its safety without the need of generating further animal data. The intravenous (IV) rat PBK model, using PK-Sim®, was developed and validated using legacy in vivo data generated prior to the 2013 EU animal-testing ban. Input data included literature or predicted physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties. The refined IV rat PBK model was subject to sensitivity analysis to identify homosalate-specific sensitive parameters impacting the prediction of Cmax (more sensitive than AUC(0-∞)). These were then considered, together with population modeling, to calculate the confidence interval (CI) 95% Cmax and AUC(0-∞). Final model parameters were established by visual inspection of the simulations and biological plausibility. The IV rat model was extrapolated to oral administration, and used to estimate internal exposures to doses tested in an oral repeated dose toxicity study. Next, a human PBK dermal model was developed using measured human in vitro ADME data and a module to represent the dermal route. Model performance was confirmed by comparing predicted and measured values from a US-FDA clinical trial (Identifier: NCT03582215, https://clinicaltrials.gov/). Final exposure estimations were obtained in a virtual population and considering the in vitro and input parameter uncertainty. This model was then used to estimate the Cmax and AUC(0–24 h) of homosalate according to consumer use in a sunscreen. The developed rat and human PBK models had a good biological basis and reproduced in vivo legacy rat and human clinical kinetics data. They also complied with the most recent WHO and OECD recommendations for assessing the confidence level. In conclusion, we have developed a PBK model which predicted reasonably well the internal exposure of homosalate according to different exposure scenarios with a medium to high level of confidence. In the absence of in vivo data, such human PBK models will be the heart of future completely non-animal risk assessments; therefore, valid approaches will be key in gaining their regulatory acceptance.Clinical Trial Registration: https://clinicaltrials.gov/, identifier, NCT03582215

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Estimating human exposure in the safety assessment of chemicals is crucial. Physiologically based kinetic (PBK) models which combine information on exposure, physiology, and chemical properties, describing the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) processes of a chemical, can be used to calculate internal exposure metrics such as maximum concentration (Cmax) and area under the concentration-time curve (AUC) in plasma or tissues of a test chemical in next generation risk assessment (NGRA). This paper demonstrates the development of PBK models for three UV-filters, specifically octyl methoxycinnamate (OMC), octocrylene and 4-methylbenzylidene camphor (4-MBC). The models were parameterised entirely based on data obtained from in vitro and/or in silico methods in a bottom-up modelling approach and then validated based on human dermal pharmacokinetic (PK) data. The three UV filters are ‘difficult to test’ in in vitro test systems due to high lipophilicity, high binding affinity for proteins and non-specific binding e.g. towards plastic. This research work presents critical considerations in ADME data generation, interpretation and parameterization to assure valid PBK model development to increase the confidence in using PBK modelling to help make safety decisions in the absence of human pharmacokinetic data. The developed PBK models of the three chemicals successfully simulated the plasma concentration profiles of clinical PK data following dermal application, indicating the reliability of the ADME data generated and the parameters determined. The study also provides insights and lessons learned for characterizing ADME and developing PBK models for highly lipophilic and protein-bound chemicals in the future.