BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in disruption of healthcare services, including cancer screenings, yet data on this are limited. We sought to compare observed and expected cancer incidence rates for screenable cancers, quantifying potential missed diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN: Lung, female breast, and colorectal cancer patients from 2010 to 2020 in the National Cancer Database were standardized to calculate annual incidence rates per 100,000. A linear regression model of 2010 through 2019 incidence rates (pre-COVID) was used to calculate predicted 2020 incidence compared with observed incidence in 2020 (COVID) with subanalyses for age, sex, race, ethnicity, and geographic region. RESULTS: In total, 1,707,395 lung, 2,200,505 breast, and 1,066,138 colorectal cancer patients were analyzed. After standardizing, the observed 2020 incidence was 66.888, 152.059, and 36.522 per 100,000 compared with the predicted 2020 incidence of 81.650, 178.124, and 44.837 per 100,000, resulting in an observed incidence decrease of –18.1%, –14.6%, and –18.6% for lung, breast, and colorectal cancer, respectively. The difference was amplified on subanalysis for lung (female, 65 or more years old, non-White, Hispanic, Northeastern and Western region), breast (65 or more years old, non-Black, Hispanic, Northeastern and Western region), and colorectal (male, less than 65 years old, non-White, Hispanic, and Western region) cancer patients. CONCLUSIONS: The reported incidence of screenable cancers significantly decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), suggesting that many patients currently harbor undiagnosed cancers. In addition to the human toll, this will further burden the healthcare system and increase future healthcare costs. It is imperative that providers empower patients to schedule cancer screenings to flatten this pending oncologic wave.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic strained oncologic care access and delivery, yet little is known about how it impacted hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) management. Our study sought to evaluate the annual effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on time to treatment initiation (TTI) for HCC. Methods The National Cancer Database was queried for patients diagnosed with clinical stages I–IV HCC (2017–2020). Patients were categorized based on their year of diagnosis as “Pre-COVID” (2017–2019) and “COVID” (2020). TTI based on stage and type of treatment first received was compared by the Mann-Whitney U test. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate factors of increased TTI and treatment delay (> 90 days). Results In total, 18,673 patients were diagnosed during Pre-COVID, whereas 5249 were diagnosed during COVID. Median TTI for any first-line treatment modality was slightly shorter during the COVID year compared with Pre-COVID (49 vs. 51 days; p < 0.0001), notably in time to ablation (52 vs. 55 days; p = 0.0238), systemic therapy (42 vs. 47 days; p < 0.0001), and radiation (60 vs. 62 days; p = 0.0177), but not surgery (41 vs. 41 days; p = 0.6887). In a multivariate analysis, patients of Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, and uninsured/Medicaid/Other Government insurance status were associated with increased TTI by factors of 1.057 (95% CI: 1.022–1.093; p = 0.0013), 1.045 (95% CI: 1.010–1.081; p = 0.0104), and 1.088 (95% CI: 1.053–1.123; p < 0.0001), respectively. Similarly, these patient populations were associated with delayed treatment times. Conclusions For patients diagnosed during COVID, TTI for HCC, while statistically significant, had no clinically significant differences. However, vulnerable patients were more likely to have increased TTI.

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