This note empirically analyses how exchange rate fluctuations affects firms’ optimal production and exporting decisions. A firm’s elasticity of risk aversion determines the direction of the impact of exchange rate risk on exports. Based on a flexible utility function that incorporates all possible risk preferences, a unique structurally estimable equation is derived. Quantile regression method is used to estimate this equation and compute the risk aversion elasticities for a panel of Indian firms. This approach allows us to demonstrate how characteristics of exporters at the intensive margin varies with the level of elasticities across the conditional exchange rate distribution.

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This paper studies characteristics of optimal investment decisions of risk-averse firms who engage in exports under two types of risks: endogenous and background risks. While endogenous risk arises from the fluctuations in spot exchange rate and affects directly the profit of an exporting firm, background risk arises from uncertain changes in firm-and industryspecific domestic and foreign policies. We propose a mean-variance decision-theoretic model to trace out impact of perturbations in the distributions of these uncertainties on the optimal investment strategy. A testable empirical model is derived and applied to a panel of 840 exporting Indian manufacturing firms for the period 1995-2015. Our results suggest that Indian manufacturing exporters depict decreasing absolute risk aversion and that firms' risk preferences are prone to variance vulnerability.