We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results can be used by researchers in physical modeling interested in a fast and accurate estimation of low dimensional stochastic models when the size of the observed time series is small and the noise process (perhaps) is non-Gaussian. The inference procedure is demonstrated specifically in the case of polynomial maps of an arbitrary degree and when a Geometric Stick Breaking mixture process prior over the space of densities, is applied to the additive errors. Our method is parsimonious compared to Bayesian nonparametric techniques based on Dirichlet process mixtures, flexible and general. Simulations based on synthetic time series are presented.

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A new approach to the joint estimation of partially exchangeable observations is presented. This is achieved by constructing a model with pairwise dependence between random density functions, each of which is modeled as a mixture of geometric stick breaking processes. The claim is that mixture modeling with Pairwise Dependent Geometric Stick Breaking Process (PDGSBP) priors is sufficient for prediction and estimation purposes; that is, making the weights more exotic does not actually enlarge the support of the prior. Moreover, the corresponding Gibbs sampler for estimation is faster and easier to implement than the Dirichlet Process counterpart.

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This paper provides a construction of a Fleming-Viot measure valued diffusion process, for which the transition function is known, by extending recent ideas of the Gibbs sampler based Markov processes. In particular, we concentrate on the Chapman-Kolmogorov consistency conditions which allows a simple derivation of such a Fleming-Viot process, once a key and apparently new combinatorial result for Pólya-urn sequences has been established.