Summary
This paper studies spillovers among US and European sovereign yields. We employ absolute magnitude restrictions on the impact matrix to identify the countries that were the main sources of spillovers. Despite the large size of shocks from euro area stressed countries, connectedness among sovereign yields declined between 2008 and 2012 due to financial fragmentation, particularly between countries with more divergent business and fiscal cycles. We show that none of the sovereign yields were insulated from foreign shocks and that shocks to the Greek bond market in 2010 explained 20–30% of the variance of sovereign yields in stressed countries, while in 2011–2012 Italy (not Spain) was the source of systemic risk.
This paper finds that debt-financed fiscal multipliers vary depending on the location of the debt buyer. In a sample of 33 countries fiscal multipliers are larger when government purchases are financed by issuing debt to foreign investors (non-residents), compared to when they are financed by issuing debt to home investors (residents). In a theoretical model, the location of the government creditor produces these differential responses through the extent that private investment is crowded out. International capital mobility of the resident private sector decreases the difference between the two types of financing both in the model and in the data.
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