Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has transformed our understanding of the human brain through well-replicated mapping of abilities to specific structures (for example, lesion studies) and functions1–3 (for example, task functional MRI (fMRI)). Mental health research and care have yet to realize similar advances from MRI. A primary challenge has been replicating associations between inter-individual differences in brain structure or function and complex cognitive or mental health phenotypes (brain-wide association studies (BWAS)). Such BWAS have typically relied on sample sizes appropriate for classical brain mapping4 (the median neuroimaging study sample size is about 25), but potentially too small for capturing reproducible brain–behavioural phenotype associations5,6. Here we used three of the largest neuroimaging datasets currently available—with a total sample size of around 50,000 individuals—to quantify BWAS effect sizes and reproducibility as a function of sample size. BWAS associations were smaller than previously thought, resulting in statistically underpowered studies, inflated effect sizes and replication failures at typical sample sizes. As sample sizes grew into the thousands, replication rates began to improve and effect size inflation decreased. More robust BWAS effects were detected for functional MRI (versus structural), cognitive tests (versus mental health questionnaires) and multivariate methods (versus univariate). Smaller than expected brain–phenotype associations and variability across population subsamples can explain widespread BWAS replication failures. In contrast to non-BWAS approaches with larger effects (for example, lesions, interventions and within-person), BWAS reproducibility requires samples with thousands of individuals.

The Human Connectome Projects in Development (HCP-D) and Aging (HCP-A) are two large-scale brain imaging studies that will extend the recently completed HCP Young-Adult (HCP-YA) project to nearly the full lifespan, collecting structural, resting-state fMRI, task-fMRI, diffusion, and perfusion MRI in participants from 5 to 100+ years of age. HCP-D is enrolling 1300+ healthy children, adolescents, and young adults (ages 5–21), and HCP-A is enrolling 1200+ healthy adults (ages 36–100+), with each study collecting longitudinal data in a subset of individuals at particular age ranges. The imaging protocols of the HCP-D and HCP-A studies are very similar, differing primarily in the selection of different task-fMRI paradigms. We strove to harmonize the imaging protocol to the greatest extent feasible with the completed HCP-YA (1200+ participants, aged 22–35), but some imaging- related changes were motivated or necessitated by hardware changes, the need to reduce the total amount of scanning per participant, and/or the additional challenges of working with young and elderly populations. Here, we provide an overview of the common HCP-D/A imaging protocol including data and rationales for protocol decisions and changes relative to HCP-YA. The result will be a large, rich, multi-modal, and freely available set of consistently acquired data for use by the scientific community to investigate and define normative developmental and aging related changes in the healthy human brain.

Like all resting-state functional connectivity data, the data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) are adversely affected by structured noise artifacts arising from head motion and physiological processes. Functional connectivity estimates (Pearson's correlation coefficients) were inflated for high-motion time points and for highmotion participants. This inflation occurred across the brain, suggesting the presence of globally distributed artifacts. The degree of inflation was further increased for connections between nearby regions compared with distant regions, suggesting the presence of distance-dependent spatially specific artifacts. We evaluated several denoising methods: censoring high-motion time points, motion regression, the FMRIB independent component analysis-based X-noiseifier (FIX), and mean grayordinate time series regression (MGTR; as a proxy for global signal regression). The results suggest that FIX denoising reduced both types of artifacts, but left substantial global artifacts behind. MGTR significantly reduced global artifacts, but left substantial spatially specific artifacts behind. Censoring high-motion time points resulted in a small reduction of distance-dependent and global artifacts, eliminating neither type. All denoising strategies left differences between high-and low-motion participants, but only MGTR substantially reduced those differences. Ultimately, functional connectivity estimates from HCP data showed spatially specific and globally distributed artifacts, and the most effective approach to address both types of motion-correlated artifacts was a combination of FIX and MGTR.

Recent technological and analytical progress in brain imaging has enabled the examination of brain organization and connectivity at unprecedented levels of detail. The Human Connectome Project in Development (HCP-D) is exploiting these tools to chart developmental changes in brain connectivity. When complete, the HCP-D will comprise approximately ∼1750 open access datasets from 1300 + healthy human participants, ages 5-21 years, acquired at four sites across the USA. The participants are from diverse geographical, ethnic, and socioeconomic backgrounds. While most participants are tested once, others take part in a three-wave longitudinal component focused on the pubertal period (ages 9-17 years). Brain imaging sessions are acquired on a 3 T Siemens Prisma platform and include structural, functional (resting state and task-based), diffusion, and perfusion imaging, physiological monitoring, and a battery of cognitive tasks and self-reports. For minors, parents additionally complete a battery of instruments to characterize cognitive and emotional development, and environmental variables relevant to development. Participants provide biological samples of blood, saliva, and hair, enabling assays of pubertal hormones, health markers, and banked DNA samples. This paper outlines the overarching aims of the project, the approach taken to acquire maximally informative data while minimizing participant burden, preliminary analyses, and discussion of the intended uses and limitations of the dataset.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a neurodevelopmental disorder characterized by social deficits and repetitive behaviors that typically emerge by 24 months of age. To develop effective early interventions that can potentially ameliorate the defining deficits of ASD and improve long-term outcomes, early detection is essential. Using prospective neuroimaging of 59 6-month-old infants with a high familial risk for ASD, we show that functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging correctly identified which individual children would receive a research clinical best-estimate diagnosis of ASD at 24 months of age. Functional brain connections were defined in 6-month-old infants that correlated with 24-month scores on measures of social behavior, language, motor development, and repetitive behavior, which are all features common to the diagnosis of ASD. A fully cross-validated machine learning algorithm applied at age 6 months had a positive predictive value of 100% [95% confidence interval (CI), 62.9 to 100], correctly predicting 9 of 11 infants who received a diagnosis of ASD at 24 months (sensitivity, 81.8%; 95% CI, 47.8 to 96.8). All 48 6-month-old infants who were not diagnosed with ASD were correctly classified [specificity, 100% (95% CI, 90.8 to 100); negative predictive value, 96.0% (95% CI, 85.1 to 99.3)]. These findings have clinical implications for early risk assessment and the feasibility of developing early preventative interventions for ASD.