Effective management of introduced species requires the early identification of species that pose a significant threat of becoming invasive. To better understand the invasive ecology of species in New England, USA, we compiled a character data set with which to compare non‐native species that are known invaders to non‐native species that are not currently known to be invasive. In contrast to previous biological trait‐based models, we employed a Bayesian hierarchical analysis to identify sets of plant traits associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms (vines, shrubs, and trees). The resulting models identify a suite of ‘invasive traits’ highlighting the ecology associated with invasiveness for each of three growth forms. The most effective predictors of invasiveness that emerged from our model were ‘invasive elsewhere’, ‘fast growth rate’, ‘native latitudinal range’, and ‘growth form’. The contrast among growth forms was pronounced. For example, ‘wind dispersal’ was positively correlated with invasiveness in trees, but negatively correlated in shrubs and vines. The predictive model was able to correctly classify invasive plants 67% of the time (22/33), and non‐invasive plants 95% of the time (204/215). A number of potential future invasive species in New England that deserve management consideration were identified.

The ability to understand and predict the success of invasive plant species in their new ranges is increased when there is a sympatric native congener available for comparison. Celastrus orbiculatus (oriental bittersweet) is a liana introduced into the United States in the mid-1800s from East Asia as an ornamental plant. Its native congener, Celastrus scandens (American bittersweet), ranges from the east coast of the United States as far west as Wyoming. In the Northeastern United States, C. orbiculatus is continuing to expand its range while C. scandens appears to be in serious decline. One hypothesis for this decline is that C. scandens does not have such a wide range of ecological tolerances in the current landscape as C. orbiculatus, which seems to tolerate a greater range of resource conditions. To investigate this hypothesis, we transplanted these two species into ten sites that spanned a full range of light and soil moisture conditions to compare their establishment and performance in terms of aboveground growth (biomass and height) and mortality. After two years, C. orbiculatus showed significantly lower mortality and greater biomass across all resource conditions compared to C. scandens. In addition, C. orbiculatus preferred more mesic soil moisture conditions, while C. scandens performed better in drier soil moisture conditions. Since much of the Northeastern United States is now forested, this preference for mesic soil conditions could make it more successful than C. scandens in the region. This study shows the utility of manipulative experiments, particularly those using congeneric native species as benchmarks, for assessing the causes and predicting the course of invasions.

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