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A reduction in the energy intensity of private transport is the least cost-feasible approach to mitigate the uncertainties of future oil supplies, given the impending peak in world conventional oil production. The built environment and transport infrastructure of an urban form determine the extent to which low-impact adaptations to these constraints are possible and hence the resilience of residents to fuel price shocks and constraints. This paper introduces the concept of active mode accessibility (AMA), defined as the proportion of activities that can be reached by active modes alone, given the population demographics of the study area. AMA is characterized by the underlying geographic form of an urban area and its transport networks. High AMA means that the resident transport activity system can be served with minimal energy input; consequently resilience to fuel shocks and constraints is greater. The AMA method is based on accessibility analysis and extends the depth of the analysis with energy-based activity modeling and defines a measure of energy accessibility. The paper introduces a spatial method for calculating the AMA within a selected study area and a geographic information system–based tool for applying the method, and presents two case studies. Central Christchurch, New Zealand, gives an AMA of 100% because the city has a high density of destinations and a wide range of local facilities available for every activity. The satellite township of Rolleston gives a significantly lower AMA of 59%, principally because of a lack of local preschool and high school facilities and an insufficient diversity of destinations for some activities.

Abstract:Peak oil, and the ensuing global decline in oil supplies, will adversely affect automobile-dependent personal transport systems. This places users at risk if they are unable to access their activities without oil consumption. This research develops a new measure of oil vulnerability, combining spatial data of vehicle fuel use with a novel transport energy-accessibility metric, the Minimum Energy Transport Activity Access characterisation (METAA), overcoming many of the limitations seen in previous studies. The Vulnerability to Oil: Income, Land-Use and Accessibility (VOILA) assessment identifies vulnerable areas as those where residents might lose access to activities during oil price rises as they can neither afford to spend more on fuel nor adapt their travel patterns to reduce consumption. This new metric allows planners to analyse where, how and why residents are vulnerable. Assessing the oil vulnerability of Christchurch, New Zealand, indicated that although the majority of areas are adaptable, residents in most areas are already spending over 10% of their income on transport, leaving the less adaptable areas OPEN ACCESS 2 vulnerable. A comparative mapping exercise highlighted the distribution of vulnerability and identified potential mitigation strategies. The research has important implications for urban and transport planning.