The author examines problems related to the fact that in many countries, census data are only reported for areal units and not at the individual level. Attention is paid to the question of ecological fallacy problems that arise from this situation. Data from a 10 percent sample of the United Kingdom population and individual census data from Italy are used to illustrate the problem. "It is concluded that ecological fallacy effects are endemic to areal census data, although their magnitude is perhaps not as large as might have been expected. The principal difficulty is that there is at present no way of predicting in advance the degree of severity likely to be associated with particular variables and particular techniques. Finally, a suggestion is made concerning how the potentially serious practical consequences can be reduced."
"The availability of GIS [geographic information systems] technology and digital boundaries of census output areas now makes it possible for users to design their own census geography. Three algorithms are described that can be used for this purpose. An Arc/Info implementation is briefly outlined and case studies presented to demonstrate some of the results of explicitly designing zoning systems for use with 1991 [U.K.] census data."
The design of zoning systems for spatial interaction models is a major problem which affects both the interpretation and acceptability of these models. This paper demonstrates that zoning-system effects on parameter values and model performance are nontrivial, and that their magnitude is far larger than was previously thought likely. An approach which is most appropriate in an applied context, where there is also the problem of poor model performance, is to identify a zoning system which will approximately optimise model performance. The paper gives details of how this may be achieved. This method is demonstrated by a series of empirical studies. Finally, there is a brief discussion of the general implications for spatial model building.
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