The majority of allied casualties from recent conflicts were caused by blast wave and fragments perforation damage from Improvised Explosive Devices. Survivability to this type of threat is a critical factor to consider for land platform design. This paper proposes an original approach to platform survivability assessment using a combination of Agent-Based (AB) simulation and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to predict the consequences of IED fragment impacts on the platform operational status. As a demonstration, this approach is applied to the comparison of different platform architectures to gain insight into the optimisation of the platform component topology

With the development of asymmetrical warfare, improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have become the most significant threat to military land platforms. Among other IED effects, fragments cause severe damage, limiting platform capabilities and subsequent mission performance at a significant distance from the explosion. Existing simulation tools operate at a closely defined level of abstraction and scope. For example, finite element analysis tools describe the problem at a fine level of detail but are only viable for the simulation of small components or structures. In contrast, common turn-based battlefield tools simulate the movements of entire battle groups, but at a high level of abstraction whereby damage is estimated as a probabilistic function. In order to address this disconnect, we present a method of fragment damage simulation based on agent modeling techniques; as a component of a common approach to platform survivability, estimation considers the problem from the individual structure damage up to the fleet-level capabilities. The results obtained prove the validity of the approach for low-level fragment damage modeling. Extensions, to include blast threat and platform-level survivability assessment, are proposed