Deep-water access is arguably the most effective, but under-studied mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep-water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep-water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data-model approach. •We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole-soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water-access depths.• Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years , especially in evergreen species. Species exposure to water-stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for waterstress related mortality risk through deep-water access.• The role of deep-water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

Fine scale spatial variation in soil moisture influences plant performance, species distributions and diversity. However, detailed information on local soil moisture variation is scarce, particularly in species-rich tropical forests. We measured soil water potential and soil water content in the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, one of the best-studied tropical forests in the world. We present maps of soil water potential for several dry season stages during a regular year and during an El Niño drought. Additionally, we provide code that allows users to create maps for specific dates. The maps can be combined with other freely available datasets such as long-term vegetation censuses (ranging from seeds to adult trees), data on other resources (e.g. light and nutrients) and remote sensing data (e.g. LiDAR and imaging spectroscopy). Users can study questions in various disciplines such as population and community ecology, plant physiology and hydrology under current and future climate conditions.

Seedlings in moist tropical forests must cope with deep shade and seasonal drought. However, the interspecific relationship between seedling performance in shade and drought remains unsettled. We quantified spatiotemporal variation in shade and drought in the seasonal moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and estimated responses of naturally regenerating seedlings as the slope of the relationship between performance and shade or drought intensity. Our performance metrics were relative height growth and first-year survival. We investigated the relationship between shade and drought responses for up to 63 species. There was an interspecific trade-off in species responses to shade versus species responses to dry season intensity; species that performed worse in the shade did not suffer during severe dry seasons and vice versa. This trade-off emerged in part from the absence of species that performed particularly well or poorly in both drought and shade. If drought stress in tropical forests increases with climate change and as solar radiation is higher during droughts, the trade-off may reinforce a shift towards species that resist drought but perform poorly in the shade by releasing them from deep shade.

Local tree species distributions in tropical forests correlate strongly with soil water availability. However, it is unclear how species distributions are shaped by demographic responses to soil water availability. Specifically, it remains unknown how growth affects species distributions along water availability gradients relative to mortality. We quantified spatial variation in dry season soil water potential (SWP) in the moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to evaluate relationships between demographic responses of naturally regenerating seedlings to SWP (RGRs and first‐year mortality) and species distributions along the SWP gradient for 62 species. We also tested whether species that were more abundant at the wet or dry end of the gradient performed better (a) at their “home end” of the gradient (“best at home” hypothesis) and (b) “at home” compared to co‐occurring species (“home advantage” hypothesis). Four and five species responded significantly to SWP in terms of growth or mortality respectively. Growth (but not mortality) responses were positively related to species distributions along the SWP gradient; species with a more positive (negative) growth response to SWP were more abundant at higher (lower) SWP, that is, at wetter (drier) sites. In addition, wet distributed species grew faster on the wet end of the SWP gradient than on the dry end (“best at home”) and grew faster on the wet end than dry distributed species (“home advantage”). Mortality rates declined with seedling size for all species. Thus, seedling growth responses to SWP indirectly shaped local species distributions by influencing seedling size and thereby mortality risk. Synthesis. By demonstrating how growth responses to spatial variation in soil water availability affect species distributions, we identified a demographic process underlying niche differentiation on hydrological gradients in tropical forests. Recognizing the role of these growth responses in shaping species distributions should improve the understanding of tropical forest composition and diversity along rainfall gradients and with climate change.