Analysing datasets from hunting statistics and human cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE), we found a positive correlation between the number of human TBE cases and the number of red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Time lags were also present, indicating that high numbers of red fox in 1 y translated into high numbers of human TBE cases the following y. Results for smaller predators were mixed and inconsistent. Hares and grouse showed negative correlations with human TBE cases, suggesting that they might function as dilution hosts. Combining our findings with food web dynamics, we hypothesize a diversity of possible interactions between predators and human disease - some predators suppressing a given disease, others enhancing its spread, and still others having no effect at all. Larger-sized predators that suppress red fox numbers and activity (i.e. wolf, Canis lupus; European lynx, Lynx lynx) were once abundant in our study area but have been reduced or extirpated from most parts of it by humans. We ask what would happen to red foxes and TBE rates in humans if these larger predators were restored to their former abundances.

Predictions from our models can be used to determine when preventive and adaptive programmes should be implemented. For example, in years when the frequency of TBE in humans is predicted to be high, vector control could be intensified where infested ticks have a higher probability of encountering humans, such as at playgrounds, bathing lakes, barbecue areas and camping facilities. Because our models use only wildlife and climate data, they can be used even when the human population is vaccinated. Another advantage is that because our models employ data from previously-established databases, no additional funding for surveillance is required.

We investigated the relationship between mast seeding in beech Fagus sylvaticus and oak Quercus spp., and the occurrence of the rodent-dependent predators Tengmalm’s Owl Aegolius funereus, Long-eared Owl Asio otus and Tawny Owl Strix aluco in south-eastern Sweden (Blekinge) 1992—2000. We also compared available data on seed production with data on winter flocks of Brambling Fringilla montifringilla, mainly depending on beech seeds as winter food. Years of good beech mast production were followed by years of high frequency of Tengmalm’s Owl and Long-eared Owl, indicating a rapid numerical response to improved food conditions. The Tawny Owl did not respond in the same way, but tended to reach high densities two years after mast seeding. These results suggest that mast seed production may influence the populations of rodent-feeding predators, and that the numerical response may be very rapid in potentially nomadic specialist predators. This was indicated particularly for the Tengmalm´s Owls arriving in Blekinge rather late in spring of 1999. Winters following good beech mast production normally held large numbers of Bramblings. However Bramblings were absent in Blekinge during the winter of 1992/93 despite the very good year for beechnut production in 1992. Thus, low number of Bramblings was no reliable indication for low numbers of owls the following spring.

The birds were counted in four different habitats (coniferous forest, deciduous forest and two types of mixed farmland with much pasture and meadows, one near the coast and the other one upland) during winter (November 1997–March 1998) and spring (late April through June 1998) in the province of Blekinge, southern Sweden. One point count route with 12 points was established in each habitat. Five complete counts were made in each season with a five minutes count at each point. All birds seen or heard were counted, but in this study I included only birds that actually used (keeping a territory, feeding, resting) in the specific habitat of each route. The coniferous habitat was poorer than the deciduous one, especially in winter. Six of the 12 points in the coniferous habitat had no deciduous trees and it was mainly these monocultures that were poor. The other points with some deciduous trees compared well with the deciduous habitat. The two pasture habitats were much richer than the forest habitats in winter. In spring there was only a small difference between the forest habitats and the upland pasture habitat, whereas the coastal pasture habitat was much richer, mainly because of a few coastal species. Vicinity to lakes, watercourses and marshes was a key factor contributing to high species diversity in both farmland habitats.