SUMMARY

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In addition to the known effects of government fractionalization, we find that larger deficits are associated with a reduced likelihood of budgetary reforms. In a war of attrition setting, larger deficits signify stronger entitlements on the budget, generating unwillingness to impose self-discipline. A sense of crisis emerges only when macroeconomic imbalances appear. However, while a crisis creates the opportunity for reform, policy credibility is important for effectively using that opportunity. We find that one way of establishing credibility is by undertaking measures in opposition to the government's known ideological position - these presumably signal motivation by broader social welfare considerations. Copyright 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd. International Monetary Fund retains copyright and all other rights in the manuscript of this 〈chapter/article〉 as submitted for publication.

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The COVID-19 outbreak and the measures to contain the virus have caused severe disruptions to labor supply and demand worldwide. Understanding who is bearing the burden of the crisis and what drives it is crucial for designing policies going forward. Using the U.S. monthly Current Population Survey data, this paper analyzes differences in employment responses between men and women. The main finding is that less educated women with young children were the most adversely affected during the first nine months of the crisis.The loss of employment of women with young children due to the burden of additional childcare is estimated to account for 45 percent of the increase in the employment gender gap, and to reduce total output by 0.36 percent between April and November 2020.