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Despite the common acknowledgement that migration is a process, the vast majority of empirical migration studies focus on actual moves without paying attention to the stages preceding them. We use an analytical framework in which the migration process is subdivided into a phase of decision-making, consisting of considering and planning the move, and another phase of realizing it. We investigate which part both life-course events and perceived opportunities play in each stage of the migration process for moves out of the city among young adults aged 18-29 years. The data come from a representative survey in two German cities (Magdeburg and Freiburg) and were gathered via a two-wave design in 2006 and 2007. Results from a generalized ordered logistic regression analysis of not considering, considering, or planning migration reveal that perceived opportunities and life-course events are important predictors of considering and planning migration, whereas beginning tertiary education and beginning a job are particularly important to entering the planning stage. Results from a binomial logistic regression of moving versus staying show that resources are particularly important for putting the decision in favor of migration into action.

Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour.

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