Using unique assessment data for players from a German Bundesliga club’s youth academy, we tested four core hypotheses on how player ratings and rater or ratee‐related characteristics reflect the (prospective) optimism bias and (retrospective) positivity bias. The results indicate not only that the ratings of predicted and remembered performance are indeed higher than the talents’ actual performance throughout a season, but that these differences depend positively on the rater’s organizational experience and negatively on the amount of ratee data available. They also suggest that (prospective) anticipation is even more positively biased than (retrospective) recollection of player performances, underscoring the asymmetry between looking forward and looking backward.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the future of professional soccer by 2025. Scientific foresight studies on this industry do not yet exist despite its current position at a crossroads: toward further exploitation of profit potential? Or clear commitment to the traditional European Model of Sport? Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted a Delphi-based scenario study. In total, 62 high-level experts from sport, business, and society evaluated the probability of occurrence, impact, and desirability of 15 future projections over at least two rounds. The resulting 5,940 quantitative judgments and 670 qualitative comments were condensed into probable scenarios and surprising wildcards. Findings – Two probable scenarios for European professional soccer by 2025 exist: in an extrapolation scenario, clubs will reap long-term gains from fulfilling public demands regarding stadium security, competitive balance, and social engagement. The less likely alternative is an extensive commercialization, including a short-term exploitation of all imaginable income sources, such as virtually augmented stadiums, financial investors, and league-owned broadcasting channels. Research limitations/implications – The findings are primarily based on qualitative research and an all-German sample. Further studies could incorporate additional quantitative data or might survey an international panel to increase predictive accuracy. Originality/value – The paper is novel in that it examines a yet unaddressed research gap – the future of professional soccer – with a common scientific foresight method that is already established in sport management research – the Delphi technique.

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