Glacial lakes are rapidly growing in response to climate change and glacier retreat. The role of these lakes as terrestrial storage for glacial meltwater is currently unknown and not accounted for in global sea level assessments. Here we map glacier lakes around the world using 254,795 satellite images and use scaling relations to estimate that global glacier lake volume increased ~48%, to 156.5 km 3 , between 1990 and 2018. This methodology provides a near-global database and analysis of glacial lake extent, volume and change. Over the study period, lake numbers and total area increased by 53% and 51%, respectively. Median lake size has increased 3%; however, the 95 th percentile has increased ~9%. Currently glacial lakes hold about 0.43 mm of sea level equivalent. As glaciers continue to retreat and feed glacial lakes, the implications for glacial lake outburst floods and water resources are of considerable societal and ecological importance.
Abstract. Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier
recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is
at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal
assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on
lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain
glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on
downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated
with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the
historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future
global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency
and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response
to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and
regularity – rather unexpectedly – have declined in recent decades
even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have
suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier
recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly
happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in
glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict
increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd
century.
Glacier- and snowpack-derived meltwaters are threatened by climate change. Features such as rock glaciers (RGs) are climatically more resilient than glaciers and potentially contain hydrologically valuable ice volumes. However, while the distribution and hydrological significance of glaciers is well studied, RGs have received comparatively little attention. Here, we present the first near-global RG database (RGDB) through an analysis of current inventories and this contains >73,000 RGs. Using the RGDB, we identify key data-deficient regions as research priorities (e.g., Central Asia). We provide the first approximation of near-global RG water volume equivalent and this is 83.72 ± 16.74 Gt. Excluding the Antarctic and Subantarctic, Greenland Periphery, and regions lacking data, we estimate a near-global RG to glacier water volume equivalent ratio of 1:456. Significant RG water stores occur in arid and semi-arid regions (e.g., South Asia East, 1:57). These results represent a first-order approximation. Uncertainty in the water storage estimates includes errors within the RGDB, inherent flaws in the meta-analysis methodology, and RG thickness estimation. Here, only errors associated with the assumption of RG ice content are quantified and overall uncertainty is likely larger than that quantified. We suggest that RG water stores will become increasingly important under future climate warming.
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