Previous studies have shown that children and adolescents exposed to traumatic experience in a disaster can suffer from high levels of post-traumatic stress. The present paper is the first a series reporting on the long-term follow-up of a group of young adults who as teenagers had survived a shipping disaster-the sinking of the "Jupiter" in Greek waters-between 5 and 8 years previously. The general methodology of the follow-up study as a whole is described, and the incidence and long-term course of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). It is the first study of its kind on a relatively large, representative sample of survivors, using a standardised diagnostic interview, and comparing survivors with a community control group. Survivors of the Jupiter disaster (N = 217), and 87 young people as controls, were interviewed using the Clinician Administered PTSD Scale (CAPS). Of the 217 survivors, 111 (51.7%) had developed PTSD at some time during the follow-up period, compared with an incidence in the control group of 3.4 % (N = 87). In the large majority of cases of PTSD in the survivors for whom time of onset was recorded, 90 % (N = 110), onset was not delayed, being within 6 months of the disaster. About a third of those survivors who developed PTSD (30%, N = 111) recovered within a year of onset, through another third (34 %, N = 111) were still suffering from the disorder at the time of follow-up, between 5 and 8 years after the disaster. Issues relating to the generalisability of these findings are discussed.

This paper examines risk factors for the development of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), and its severity and chronicity, in a group of 217 young adults who survived a shipping disaster in adolescence. The survivors were followed up 5 to 8 years after the disaster. Risk factors examined fell into three main categories: pre-disaster child and family vulnerability factors, including childhood psychopathology; objective and subjective disaster-related experiences; and post-disaster factors, including results from screening questionnaires administered 5 months post-disaster, coping mechanisms adopted subsequently, life events, and availability of social supports. Developing PTSD following the disaster was significantly associated with being female, with pre-disaster factors of learning and psychological difficulties in the child and violence in the home, with severity of exposure to the disaster, survivors' subjective appraisal of the experience, adjustment in the early post-disaster period, and life events and social supports subsequently. When all these factors were considered together, measures of the degree of exposure to the disaster and of subjective appraisal of life threat, and ratings of anxiety obtained 5 months post-disaster, best predicted whether survivors developed PTSD. For those survivors who developed PTSD, its duration and severity were best predicted not by objective and subjective disaster-related factors, but by pre-disaster vulnerability factors of social, physical, and psychological difficulties in childhood together with ratings of depression obtained 5 months post-disaster, and whether survivors received post-disaster support at school. The implications of these findings are considered for targeting assessment and intervention efforts at survivors most at risk of developing difficulties in adjustment following similar traumatic experiences.

Children and adolescents exposed to trauma can suffer major adverse psychological effects including not only post-traumatic stress but also other psychological disorders. This study investigates the long-term course of general psychopathology following trauma in adolescence using a standardised diagnostic interview and comparisons with a matched control group. Young people (N= 216) who as teenagers had survived a shipping disaster-the sinking of the "Jupiter" in Greek waters-between 5 and 8 years previously and 87 young people as matched controls were interviewed. The survivors showed raised rates of diagnosis in a range of anxiety and affective disorders during the follow-up period. The highest rates were among the survivors who had developed Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), and those survivors who had not were generally similar to the controls. Onset of anxiety and affective disorders varied between being indefinitely close to the disaster to years later. Differences in rates of disorder between the survivor and control groups had lessened by the time of follow-up but were still apparent, due to continuing distress among the survivors still suffering from PTSD, and to a lesser extent among those who had recovered from PTSD. Generalisability of the findings are discussed.