In 2015, large parts of Europe were characterized by extraordinary high summer temperatures, accompanied by very dry conditions, particularly in central‐eastern Europe. Several major heat episodes occurred from the end of June until mid‐September. We provide an ad‐hoc evaluation of the observed climatological extremes in a secular context, by using a set of long station time series in daily resolution. Our data set comprises 42 temperature and 43 precipitation records, predominantly starting already in the 19th century. To investigate local record values, the individual full record length is analysed for each station, while regionally averaged analyses are presented for the core study period of 1901–2015. The study area covers Europe's central latitudes (44° to 52°N), extending from England in the west up to the central Ukraine in the east. During summer 2015, various indices representing extremely high maximum and minimum temperatures (strongly) exceeded previous record high values, mainly in an area extending from eastern Germany to western Ukraine. Additionally, severely to extremely dry conditions with unusually frequent dry days were prevailing particularly in the (central‐) eastern part of the study area. Drought indices combining temperature and precipitation revealed drought conditions comparable or even worse than those of former extreme summers like 2003.
A 51-year dataset from nine meteorological stations in the capitals of northeastern Brazil (NEB), with daily data of precipitation totals and of mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures, was statistically analyzed for data homogeneity and for signals of climate variability. The hypothesis was explored that a connection exists between inhomogeneities of the time series and the meteorological systems influencing the region. Results of the homogeneity analysis depend on the selected test variable, the test algorithm, and the chosen significance level; all more or less subjective choices. Most of the temperature series was classified as "suspect," while most of the precipitation series was categorized as "useful." Displaying and visually checking the time series demonstrates the power of expertise and may allow for a deeper data analysis. Consistent changes in the seasonality of temperature and precipitation emerge over NEB despite manifold breaks in the temperature series. Both series appear to be coupled. The intra-annual temperature and precipitation ranges have increased, along with an intensified seasonal cycle. Temperature mainly increased during DJF, MAM, and SON, with decreases in JJA being related to wetter conditions and more frequent heavy precipitation events. Drought conditions mostly increased in SON and DJF, depending on the timing of the local dry season.
Spatial and temporal trend variability in extreme precipitation indices was studied for the meteorological seasons from 1951 to 2006. Eight indices were used, describing their frequency (90pNoD, 95pNoD), totals (1dayT, 5dayT, 90pT, 95pT) and intensity (90pInt, 95pInt). The following key challenges were addressed: (1) temporal variability in the relative number of stations with significant 30-year trends, (2) temporal stability and (3) average magnitude of the calculated 30-year trends. Temporal changes in the spatial extent of statistically significant extreme precipitation trends proceeded differently in each season. The trend direction, indicated by trend stability analysis, was consistent with that of averaged 30-year trend magnitudes at most stations. A distinct spatial differentiation emerged in the prevailing trend directions between the eastern and the western part of the study area. In all seasons, increasing trends in extreme precipitation dominated in central-eastern Germany, whereas opposite trends prevailed in southern Poland. This pattern was particularly prominent in winter. Similarities in the temporal variability of the percentage of significant trends between the eastern and the western sub-regions emerged in autumn only. Summer was characterized by the most pronounced temporal changes in the percentage of significant negative trends. Summer also showed the most stable extreme precipitation trends of all seasons and a higher trend magnitude than the transitional seasons. Spatial patterns of trend directions in spring, showing the most complex pattern of all seasons, vary depending on the index, particularly with respect to trend stability.
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