This study describes the effects of the introduction of universal infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in 2006 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children and adults in Germany with a focus on the dynamics of serotype distribution in vaccinated and non-vaccinated age groups. Over a period of 22 years (1992–2014), microbiological diagnostic laboratories from all over Germany have been sending isolates of IPD cases to the German National Reference Center for Streptococci on a voluntary basis. Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates were serotyped using Neufeld’s Quellung method. Among children <16 years, the proportion of PCV7 serotypes among isolates from IPD cases decreased from 61.8% before vaccination (1997–2006) to 23.5% in the early vaccination period (2007–2010; p = 1.30E-72) and sank further to 5.2% in the late vaccination period (2010–2014; p = 4.59E-25). Similar reductions were seen for the separate age groups <2 years, 2-4 years and 5-15 years. Among adults, the proportion of PCV7 serotypes decreased from 43.4% in the pre-vaccination period (1992–2006) to 24.7% (p = 3.78E-88) in the early vaccination period and 8.2% (p = 5.97E-161) in the late vaccination period. Both among children and among adults, the non-PCV7 serotypes 1, 3, 7F and 19A significantly increased in the early vaccination period. After the switch from PCV7 to PVC10/PCV13 for infant vaccination in 2010, serotypes 1, 6A and 7F significantly decreased. A decrease in serotype 19A was only observed in 2013–2014, as compared to 2010–2011 (children p = 4.16E-04, adults p = 6.98E-06). Among adults, serotype 3, which strongly increased in the early vaccination period (p = 4.44E-15), remained at a constant proportion in the late vaccination period. The proportion of non-PCV13 vaccine serotypes increased over the whole vaccination period, with serotypes 10A, 12F, 23B, 24F and 38 most significantly increasing among children and serotypes 6C, 12F, 15A, 22F and 23B increasing among adults. Eight years of childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination have had a strong effect on the pneumococcal population in Germany, both among the target group for vaccination as well as among older children and adults.

BackgroundThis study presents an analysis of 1,491 serogroup 23 and 762 serogroup 15 isolates from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children and adults before and after the general recommendation for childhood pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Germany in July 2006. Vaccination formulations used were PCV7 (from July 2006), PCV10 (from April 2009) and PCV13 (from December 2009, replacing PCV7).MethodsThe German National Reference Center for Streptococci (GNRCS) has conducted surveillance of IPD since 1992. Isolates were serotyped and tested for antibiotic susceptibility. Selected isolates were characterized using MLST.ResultsIn an analysis of 23,957 isolates from IPD in children and adults sent to the GNRCS between July 1992 and June 2014, we found a strongly significant increase of non-PCV13 serotypes in the late vaccination (PCV13) period (2010-2014). Among these, the proportions of serotypes 15A and 23B were the most strongly significantly increasing. After the recommendation for pneumococcal conjugate childhood vaccination in 2006 and the introduction of higher-valent vaccines in 2009, the proportion of 15A increased significantly from 0.5% in the early vaccination period (2007-2010) to 2.4% in the late vaccination period (2010-2014, p=3.14x10-22). The proportion of serotype 23B increased from 0.5% to 2.8% in the same period (p=1.55x10-29). Penicillin non-susceptibility levels of the serotype 15A (47.4%) and serotype 23B (46.5%) isolates were high, with MIC values ranging from 0.12-2 μg/ml (15A) and 0.12-0.5 μg/ml (23B). MLSTs of serotype 23B isolates grouped in two clonal complexes (CC): CC439, with sequence type (ST) 439 as the main representative and CC338 (linked to CC156), with ST1349 as most prevalent clone. Both CCs have been present over almost the whole surveillance period. All penicillin non-susceptible isolates occurred in CC338. Serotype 15A isolates appeared to be more diverse. Six CCs, one group of three STs and two singletons were found among 20 isolates. Most prevalent was CC63, with ST63 as most prominent representative (n=5). Most penicillin non-susceptible isolates were found among CC63 isolates.ConclusionsThe prevalence of non-PCV13 serotypes in Germany has increased significantly between July 2007 and June 2014, with 15A and 23B being the most strongly increasing serotypes of all. Both serotypes show a high proportion of penicillin non-susceptibility.

Background A general recommendation for adult pneumococcal vaccination with 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) for adults 60 and older has been in place in Germany since 1998, but uptake has been low. Just over a decade after the implementation of an infant pneumococcal conjugate vaccine recommendation, we examined indirect protection effects on adult invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Germany. Methods and findings Reported IPD cases decreased in children under two years of age from 11.09 per 100,000 in 2003–2006 to 5.94 per 100,000 in 2017/18, while in adult age groups, reported IPD cases rose across the board, most dramatically in adults 60 years of age and over, from 1.64 to 10.08 cases per 100,000. PCV13-type IPD represents 31% of all cases in this age group, the lion’s share of which is due to the rapid increase of serotype 3 IPD, which, by itself, has reached 2.11 reported cases per 100,000 and makes up 21% of all IPD cases in this age group. The two vaccine formulations currently in development (PCV15 and PCV20) would increase current (PCV13) coverage by 8.5% points and 28.0% points in children, while in adults coverage would increase by 10.4% points and 21.9% points, respectively. Conclusions While original models predicted that indirect effects of childhood vaccination would suffice for adults, it seems that the herd protection effect has reached its limit, with vaccine serotypes 4, 19F, and 19A IPD persisting in adults after initial reductions, and serotype 3 IPD not showing any herd protection effect at all.

BackgroundIn this study we calculate the effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children under the age of two years using the indirect cohort method. We also discuss the timeliness of vaccination and the residual cases of vaccine type IPD.Methods and FindingsFrom July 2006 until June 2015, 921 IPD cases were reported and for 618 children (67.1%), the vaccination status at the time of infection could be accurately determined. Of these, 379 (61.3%) were vaccinated and 239 (38.7%) were not vaccinated. The adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) of PCV7 for all included serotypes + 6A was 80% (95% CI: 63–89) for at least one dose, 97% (89–100) after three primary doses (post primary) and 95% (57–100) post booster. The adjusted overall VE of PCV13 was 86% (74–93) for at least one dose, 85% (62–94) post primary and 91% (61–99) post booster. For the additional serotypes included in PCV13, the adjusted VE was 82% (66–91), 80% (46–93) and 90% (54–98) respectively. The serotype specific VE for at least one dose was high for serotypes 1 (83%; 15–97), 3 (74%; 2–93), 7F (84%; 18–98) and 19A (77%; 47–90). Only 39.5% of children with IPD obtained their first dose of PCV7 according to schedule (2nd dose: 32.9%, 3rd dose: 22.0%, booster dose: 63.6%). For children vaccinated with PCV13 values were slightly better: 43.8%, 33.5%, 26.3% and 74.3% respectively. Among 90 residual cases with PCV7 serotypes, 73 (81.1%) were in unvaccinated children, and 15 (16.7%) in children who had not obtained the number of doses recommended for their age, and only two (2.2%) in children vaccinated according to age. Of 82 cases with PCV13 serotypes occurring after the switch from PCV7 to PCV13, 56 (68.3%) were not vaccinated, 22 (26.8%) were incompletely vaccinated, and four (4.9%) were vaccinated according to age.ConclusionsOur data show a high effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Germany. However, the administration of vaccine doses among children with IPD is often delayed, resulting in many vaccine type cases in non- or incompletely-vaccinated children. Whether the recently-implemented change to a 2+1 schedule will improve the timeliness of vaccination should be subject to careful monitoring.

Estimates of the reproductive number for novel pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2 are essential for understanding the potential trajectory of the epidemic and the level of intervention that is needed to bring the epidemic under control. However, most methods for estimating the basic reproductive number (R0) and time-varying effective reproductive number (Rt) assume that the fraction of cases detected and reported is constant through time. We explore the impact of secular changes in diagnostic testing and reporting on estimates of R0 and Rt using simulated data. We then compare these patterns to data on reported cases of COVID-19 and testing practices from different United States (US) states. We find that changes in testing practices and delays in reporting can result in biased estimates of R0 and Rt. Examination of changes in the daily number of tests conducted and the percent of patients testing positive may be helpful for identifying the potential direction of bias. Changes in diagnostic testing and reporting processes should be monitored and taken into consideration when interpreting estimates of the reproductive number of COVID-19.