Huanglongbing (HLB) was first discovered in Florida in 2005. It can now be found in all counties in the state where commercial citrus production takes place. HLB is a bacterial disease that is transmitted by the Asiatic citrus psyllid. HLB negatively affects citrus producers in several ways, including reduced yield, increased grove maintenance costs, and increased tree mortality. The research presented in this article suggests that another consequence of HLB is its adverse effect on the willingness of producers to invest in new plantings. Reduced plantings imply reduced fruit production in the future.

The Florida citrus industry has been enduring the impact of citrus greening since 2005. The disease has been the main driver for the state's citrus production to plummet by 80% in the past 13 years, causing the industry to downsize drastically. Planting new groves is key to ensuring a supply of fruit for processors and packinghouses to stay in business. However, a key question is whether it makes economic sense to plant a new grove in the current environment. We estimate the establishment and production costs for a new grove under endemic Huanglongbing (HLB; citrus greening) conditions for three different tree planting densities under different market conditions and examine their profitability. Our results show that establishing a new grove with a tree density similar to that of the state's average is not profitable under current market conditions. However, greater tree densities are profitable despite the greater level of investment required.

No abstract