BackgroundIvacaftor is the first cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator demonstrating clinical benefit in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). As ivacaftor is intended for chronic, lifelong use, understanding long-term effects is important for patients and healthcare providers.ObjectiveThis ongoing, observational, postapproval safety study evaluates clinical outcomes and disease progression in ivacaftor-treated patients using data from the US and the UK CF registries following commercial availability.MethodsAnnual analyses compare ivacaftor-treated and untreated matched comparator patients for: risks of death, transplantation, hospitalisation, pulmonary exacerbation; prevalence of CF-related complications and microorganisms and lung function changes in a subset of patients who initiated ivacaftor in the first year of commercial availability. Results from the 2014 analyses (2 and 3 years following commercial availability in the UK and USA, respectively) are presented here.ResultsAnalyses included 1256 ivacaftor-treated and 6200 comparator patients from the USA and 411 ivacaftor-treated and 2069 comparator patients from the UK. No new safety concerns were identified based on the evaluation of clinical outcomes included in the analyses. As part of safety evaluations, ivacaftor-treated US patients were observed to have significantly lower risks of death (0.6% vs 1.6%, p=0.0110), transplantation (0.2% vs 1.1%, p=0.0017), hospitalisation (27.5% vs 43.1%, p<0.0001) and pulmonary exacerbation (27.8% vs 43.3%, p<0.0001) relative to comparators; trends were similar in the UK. In both registries, ivacaftor-treated patients had a lower prevalence of CF-related complications and select microorganisms and had better preserved lung function.ConclusionsWhile general limitations of observational research apply, analyses revealed favourable results for clinically important outcomes among ivacaftor-treated patients, adding to the growing body of literature supporting disease modification by CFTR modulation with ivacaftor.EU PAS registration numberEUPAS4270

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of and risk factors for diabetic retinopathy in people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus, using Scottish national data.MethodsWe identified individuals diagnosed with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Scotland between January 2005 and May 2008 using data from the national diabetes database. We calculated the prevalence of retinopathy and ORs for risk factors associated with retinopathy at first screening.ResultsOf the 51,526 people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus identified, 91.4% had been screened by 31 December 2010. The median time to first screening was 315 days (interquartile range [IQR] 111–607 days), but by 2008 the median was 83 days (IQR 51–135 days). The prevalence at first screening of any retinopathy was 19.3%, and for referable retinopathy it was 1.9%. For individuals screened after a year the prevalence of any retinopathy was 20.5% and referable retinopathy was 2.3%. Any retinopathy at screening was associated with male sex (OR 1.19, 95% CI 1.14, 1.25), HbA1c (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06, 1.08 per 1% [11 mmol/mol] increase), systolic BP (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05, 1.08 per 10 mmHg increase), time to screening (OR for screening >1 year post diagnosis = 1.12, 95% CI 1.07, 1.17) and obesity (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.82, 0.93) in multivariate analysis.Conclusions/interpretationThe prevalence of retinopathy at first screening is lower than in previous UK studies, consistent with earlier diagnosis of diabetes. Most newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic patients in Scotland are screened within an acceptable interval and the prevalence of referable disease is low, even in those with delayed screening.

Aims/hypothesisThe aim of our study was to identify subgroups of patients attending the Scottish Diabetic Retinopathy Screening (DRS) programme who might safely move from annual to two yearly retinopathy screening.MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study of screening data from the DRS programme collected between 2005 and 2011 for people aged ≥12 years with type 1 or type 2 diabetes in Scotland. We used hidden Markov models to calculate the probabilities of transitions to referable diabetic retinopathy (referable background or proliferative retinopathy) or referable maculopathy.ResultsThe study included 155,114 individuals with no referable diabetic retinopathy or maculopathy at their first DRS examination and with one or more further DRS examinations. There were 11,275 incident cases of referable diabetic eye disease (9,204 referable maculopathy, 2,071 referable background or proliferative retinopathy). The observed transitions to referable background or proliferative retinopathy were lower for people with no visible retinopathy vs mild background retinopathy at their prior examination (respectively, 1.2% vs 8.1% for type 1 diabetes and 0.6% vs 5.1% for type 2 diabetes). The lowest probability for transitioning to referable background or proliferative retinopathy was among people with two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy, where the probability was <0.3% for type 1 and <0.2% for type 2 diabetes at 2 years.Conclusions/interpretationTransition rates to referable diabetic eye disease were lowest among people with type 2 diabetes and two consecutive screens showing no visible retinopathy. If such people had been offered two yearly screening the DRS service would have needed to screen 40% fewer people in 2009.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-013-2928-7) contains peer reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.

No abstract

ObjectivesTo develop and validate a tool to predict the risk of an older adult experiencing medication-related harm (MRH) requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge.Design, setting, participantsMulticentre, prospective cohort study recruiting older adults (≥65 years) discharged from five UK teaching hospitals between 2013 and 2015.Primary outcome measureParticipants were followed up for 8 weeks in the community by senior pharmacists to identify MRH (adverse drug reactions, harm from non-adherence, harm from medication error). Three data sources provided MRH and healthcare use information: hospital readmissions, primary care use, participant telephone interview. Candidate variables for prognostic modelling were selected using two systematic reviews, the views of patients with MRH and an expert panel of clinicians. Multivariable logistic regression with backward elimination, based on the Akaike Information Criterion, was used to develop the PRIME tool. The tool was internally validated.Results1116 out of 1280 recruited participants completed follow-up (87%). Uncertain MRH cases (‘possible’ and ‘probable’) were excluded, leaving a tool derivation cohort of 818. 119 (15%) participants experienced ‘definite’ MRH requiring healthcare use and 699 participants did not. Modelling resulted in a prediction tool with eight variables measured at hospital discharge: age, gender, antiplatelet drug, sodium level, antidiabetic drug, past adverse drug reaction, number of medicines, living alone. The tool’s discrimination C-statistic was 0.69 (0.66 after validation) and showed good calibration. Decision curve analysis demonstrated the potential value of the tool to guide clinical decision making compared with alternative approaches.ConclusionsThe PRIME tool could be used to identify older patients at high risk of MRH requiring healthcare use following hospital discharge. Prior to clinical use we recommend the tool’s evaluation in other settings.