The present study provides further evidence of the association between 'spikes' in workload and injury risk, but also demonstrates that this relationship is individual-specific and dependent on the level of chronic workload. Support teams for fast bowlers should monitor bowling workloads to avoid rapid fluctuations but should also base decisions on individualised data.
Although there is significant individual variation, short term high workloads and changing in wellness status appear to be associated with injury risk.
Bowling loads and injury risk in male first class county cricket: Is 'differential load' an alternative to the acute-to-chronic workload ratio? Abstract Objectives: Methodological concerns relating to acute-to-chronic workload ratios (ACWR) have been raised. This study aimed to assess the relationship between an alternative predictor variable named 'differential load', representing the smoothed week-to-week rate change in load, and injury risk in first class county cricket (FCCC) fast bowlers. Design: Prospective cohort study. Methods: Bowling loads and injuries were recorded for 49 professional male fast bowlers from six FCCC teams. A range of differential loads and ACWRs were calculated and subjected to a variable selection procedure. Results: Exponentially-weighted 7-day differential load, 9:21-day ACWR, 42-day chronic load, and 9day acute load were the best-fitting predictor variables in their respective categories. From these, a generalized linear mixed-effects model combining 7-day differential load, 42-day chronic load, and 9day acute load provided the best model fit. A two-standard deviation (2SD) increase in 7-day differential load (22 overs) was associated with a substantial increase in injury risk (risk ratio [RR] = 2.47, 90% CI: 1.27-4.80, most likely harmful), and a 2SD increase in 42-day chronic load (17.5 overs/week) was associated with a most likely harmful increase in injury risk (RR = 6.77, 90% CI: 2.15-21.33). For 9day acute load, very low values (≤1 over/week) were associated with a most likely higher risk of injury
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