Of the approximately 716 bird species that breed in North America, 386 (54%) are considered Nearctic–Neotropical migrants by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. In the past 50 yr, scores of these migratory species, including some once considered common, have declined dramatically. Nearctic–Neotropical migrants normally spend 6–8 months in tropical habitats, making the identification, availability, and management of Neotropical habitats critical issues for their conservation. Yet, for most species, complete and nuanced information about their use of tropical habitats and the relative effects of breeding vs. wintering conditions on survival, productivity, and population trends is not available, though many studies point to Neotropical overwintering habitats as being a strong driver of population change. Particularly important for long-distance Nearctic–Neotropical migrants is an understanding of how “carry-over effects” arise and influence population trends when conditions on wintering grounds and tropical stopover areas affect subsequent reproductive performance on breeding grounds. For example, why some species show strong carry-over effects from tropical habitats while others do not is not fully understood. In recent years, many studies have offered insights into these issues by taking advantage of new scientific methods and technological innovations. In this review, we explore threats facing North American breeding birds that migrate to the Neotropics, summarize knowledge of habitat selection and use on the wintering grounds, describe how conditions at one point in the annual cycle may manifest in subsequent seasons or life history stages, and discuss conservation concerns such as climate change and the potential for phenological mismatch.
Drought stress is an important consideration for wildlife in arid and semiarid regions under climate change. Drought can impact plant and animal populations directly, through effects on their physiology, as well as indirectly through effects on vegetation productivity and resource availability, and by creating conditions conducive to secondary disturbance, such as wildfire. We implemented a novel approach to understanding community-level demographic responses of birds and their habitats to these stressors in the context of climate change at 14 study sites in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. A large wildfire affecting three of the sites provided a natural experiment for also examining fire effects on vegetation and the bird community. We assessed (1) trends in drought and end-of-century (2071-2100) predicted average drought conditions under mid-range and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios; (2) effects of drought and fire on habitat (vegetation greenness); and (3) effects of drought and fire on community-level avian productivity and adult apparent survival rates. Drought has increased and is expected to increase further at our study sites under climate change. Under spring drought conditions, vegetation greenness and avian productivity declined, while summer drought appeared to negatively affect adult apparent survival rates. Response to fire was mixed; in the year of the fire, avian productivity declined, but was higher than normal for several years post-fire. Our results highlight important links between environmental stressors and avian vital rates that will likely affect population trajectories in this region under climate change. We suggest that the use and continued development of community-level demographic models will provide useful tool for leveraging sparse species-level data to provide multi-species inferences and inform conservation.
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