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OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to the Economics Department, OECD,

Quantifying undocumented populations is a persistent challenge globally. A shortage of reliable estimates limits analysis of unauthorized migrations, effective policy responses, and measures to counter anecdote-fueled immigration debates. Malaysia exemplifies the struggles of geographically exposed and institutionally constrained countries attempting to manage undocumented migration through policies based on limited data and little evaluation. To provide time series data enabling migration policy analysis and to contribute an innovative methodological approach, this article estimated Malaysia's undocumented population since 1963 by modeling the relationship between rice consumption per capita and economic development. The modeled relationship, together with known rice consumption patterns, implies an undocumented population of 2.6–2.75 million in 1963 and 6.28–8.24 million in 2017. These findings suggest that existing unauthorized migration estimation methods produce significant undercounts and that Malaysia's hidden population is much larger than believed. They also demonstrate the potential for consumption-based methods to address undocumented population data gaps globally.

JT03407650 Complete document available on OLIS in its original format This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.ECO/WKP (2017)2 Unclassified English -Or. English ECO/WKP(2017)2 2 OECD Working Papers should not be reported as representing the official views of the OECD or of its member countries. The opinions expressed and arguments employed are those of the author(s).Working Papers describe preliminary results or research in progress by the author(s) and are published to stimulate discussion on a broad range of issues on which the OECD works.Comments on Working Papers are welcomed, and may be sent to