We review how intertidal biodiversity is responding to globally driven climate change, focusing on long-term data from rocky shores in the British Isles. Physical evidence of warming around the British Isles is presented and, whilst there has been considerable fluctuation, sea surface temperatures are at the highest levels recorded, surpassing previous warm periods (i.e. late 1950s). Examples are given of species that have been advancing or retreating polewards over the last 50 to 100 yr. On rocky shores, the extent of poleward movement is idiosyncratic and dependent upon life history characteristics, dispersal capabilities and habitat requirements. More southern, warm water species have been recorded advancing than northern, cold water species retreating. Models have been developed to predict likely assemblage composition based on future environmental scenarios. We present qualitative and quantitative forecasts to explore the functional consequences of changes in the identity, abundance and species richness of gastropod grazers and foundation species such as barnacles and canopy-forming algae. We forecast that the balance of primary producers and secondary consumers is likely to change along wave exposure gradients matching changes occurring with latitude, thereby shifting the balance between export and import of primary production. Increases in grazer and sessile invertebrate diversity are likely to be accompanied by decreasing primary production by large canopy-forming fucoids. The reasons for such changes are discussed in the context of emerging theory on the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

It is critical for our knowledge of biodiversity and ecosystem processes to understand how individual species contribute to ecosystem processes and how these contributions vary in space and time. We used a manipulative field experiment in five locations over 17 degrees of latitude [from southern Portugal to the Isle of Man (British Isles)] to determine the relative response of rocky intertidal algal assemblages released from control by the grazing of limpets. Response ratios showed that when limpets were removed there was a trend of effects from north to south. In the north, grazing had a strong effect on algal assemblages, but removing grazers reduced spatial variability in assemblages. In the south, the effect of limpet grazing was far weaker and removal of grazers had a much reduced impact on spatial variability. Here we show a clear trophic control of an ecosystem in that grazing by limpets not only determines macroalgal abundance overall but also modifies ecosystem stability via variability in cover of algae.

Warming of the planet has accelerated in recent years and is predicted to continue over the next 50 to 100 yr. Evidence of responses to present warming in marine ecosystems include shifts in the geographic range of species as well as in the composition of pelagic and demersal fish, benthic and intertidal assemblages. Here we provide a review of the changes in geographic distributions and population abundance of species detected on rocky shores of the NE Atlantic over the last 60 yr. This period encompassed the warm 1950s, a colder period between 1963 and the late 1980s and the recent period of accelerating warming to levels above those of the 1950s. The likely consequences of these responses are then explored. To do this, a summary of the dynamic balance between grazers, macroalgae and barnacles in structuring mid-shore communities is given before outlining experimental work on interactions between key components of rocky shore communities. Modelling and quantitative forecasting were used to predict changes in community composition and dynamics in a warmer world and their consequences for ecosystem functioning discussed. We then identify areas that need further work before making a case for the use of rocky shore species not just as inexpensive indicators of change offshore, but as tractable models to explore the direct and indirect effects of climate change in marine and coastal ecosystems. We also provide a societal perspective emphasising the value of long-term studies in informing adaptation to climate change.

The dominant components of the mid-shore community of 4 sheltered, rocky shores in the south of the Isle of Man, UK, were surveyed. A 2-way factorial experiment to investigate the community structuring roles of Ascophyllum nodosum (hereafter AscophyUum) canopies and Patella vulgata grazing was undertaken at 1 site and monitored over a period of 6 yr. Removal of the canopy had a marked impact on the understorey community, with both direct and indirect effects. In contrast, the effect of limpet removal was limited, owing to the restriction of this grazer to small patches of bare substrate within a turf of red algae. The Ascophyllum canopy directly facilitated the presence of the red algal turf in the mid-shore; canopy removal resulted in bleachmg and death of turf species with a consequent loss of entrapped silt. This degradation of the turf resulted in an increase in the area grazed by limpets and a subsequent increase in limpet recruitment, proportional to the increased area of bare substratum. Thus, the AscophyUwn canopy indirectly limits the population of P. vulgata by facilitating the growth of a red algal turf. Eighteen months after Ascophyllum removal, a mixed canopy of Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus developed. This acted in a similar manner to the original canopy, providlng shade for turf species, which resulted in restoration of the balance between algal turf and limpet grazing. Despite this, the red algal turf had not fully recovered 5 yr after it was originally bleached, illustrating the long-term effects of Ascophyllum canopy loss on this community. Removal of the canopy also resulted in high levels of Ascophyllum recruitment, but the slow growth rate of these juvenile plants meant that nearly 6 yr after canopy removal, an Ascophyllum canopy had still not developed. Nonetheless, we predict that Ascophyllum will eventually outcompete the established Fucus spp. canopy. Detailed exammation of the distribution of Ascophyllum juveniles suggests that the low density of juveniles in the natural population is due to a lack of substratum free from both limpets and space-occupying turf, rather than a direct effect of the canopy.