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Southeast Asia is a major rice-producing region with a high level of internal consumption and accounting for 40% of global rice exports. Limited land resources, climate change and yield stagnation during recent years have once again raised concerns about the capacity of the region to remain as a large net exporter. Here we use a modelling approach to map rice yield gaps and assess production potential and net exports by 2040. We find that the average yield gap represents 48% of the yield potential estimate for the region, but there are substantial differences among countries. Exploitable yield gaps are relatively large in Cambodia, Myanmar, Philippines and Thailand but comparably smaller in Indonesia and Vietnam. Continuation of current yield trends will not allow Indonesia and Philippines to meet their domestic rice demand. In contrast, closing the exploitable yield gap by half would drastically reduce the need for rice imports with an aggregated annual rice surplus of 54 million tons available for export. Our study provides insights for increasing regional production on existing cropland by narrowing existing yield gaps.

With rapidly increasing investment in water control infrastructure (WCI) and a recently ratified agriculture development strategy that promotes integrated farming of high-value products such as fish, agricultural production, already fundamental to Myanmar’s economy, will be central to driving the countries’ socioeconomic transformation. Water planners and managers have a unique opportunity to design and manage WCI to incorporate fish and, in so doing, reduce conflicts and optimise the benefits to both people and the ecosystem services upon which they depend. Results from rice–fish culture experimental trials in Myanmar’s Ayeyarwady Delta are providing an evidence base for the importance of integrating fish into WCI, highlighting a range of both environmental and social benefits. By using less than 13% of paddy land area and through best management practices, existing rice productivity is sustained, alongside a 25% increase in economic returns for the same land area from fish. In addition, there are considerably more protein and micronutrients available from the fish produced in the system. Should these farming system innovations be adopted at scale, Myanmar stands to benefit from increased employment, incomes and nutritional value of farm plots (alongside associated reductions in pesticide pollution) and water use benefits.1

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Myanmar has experienced considerable economic and social changes since its political transition in the early 2010s. Its agriculture sector has demonstrated rapid intensification and modernization. Agricultural best management practices (BMPs), e.g., drum seeders and laser land levelling, were introduced to rice farmers in Bago Region in 2012 to increase sustainable production and counter negative environmental impacts. The objective of this study was to determine the socioeconomic and agronomic changes due to the adoption of BMPs between adopters and non-adopters. Using a digital survey questionnaire application to collect household data, 200 farmers in eight villages were interviewed in 2012 and 2017. Data were analysed using uni- and multivariate statistics. Mediation analysis was utilized to evaluate the effect of the farmer group on rice yields. Overall, all farmers in this study experienced substantial positive changes over the course of five years in line with the national development efforts. Differences among adopters and non-adopters were not significant, but notable distinctions existed between cropping patterns. Rice-pulse farmers had higher yields ( + 0.4 t/ha), yet rice-rice farmers had larger cultivation areas, received higher agricultural credits, and had superior income levels. Nevertheless, rice yields remained low (<4 t/ha). Education was found to be an important predictor of yield. Hence, this factor is crucial for accelerating agricultural development in Myanmar. Improving extension services and knowledge transfer are necessary to expand the dissemination of sustainable BMPs and make farmers more resilient against the negative implications of climate change.