The paper studying the 1995 EU-Turkey Customs Union (CU) delivers a quantitative assessment of trade and GDP per capita effects of the CU on the Turkish economy. Our Synthetic Control Method based analysis reveals, contrary to the results of most studies in the literature, that the CU's effects have been substantial by any standards. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the EU-Turkey CU, Turkish exports to the EU and GDP per capita would have been 38 per cent and 13 per cent less, respectively.The EU-Turkey CU Decision (CUD) of 1995 required Turkey to eliminate all customs duties, quantitative restrictions, charges with an equivalent effect to customs duties, and all measures with an equivalent effect to quantitative restrictions in the trade of industrial

The paper consider the Turkey-EU customs union (CU). After re v i e w i n g briefly the developments in Turkey-EU relations the paper studies the structure of protection that prevailed prior to the formation of the CU as well as structure of protection that will prevail when all of the adjustments required by the CU will be completed. The re s o u r ce allocation effects of the CU are studied using nominal and effective protection rates. Besides the liberalization of trade the CU introduces new rules and disciplines that will effect the functioning of markets in Turkey. With the formation of CU Turkey is confronted with reductions in annual tax revenue. The paper studies the possible effects of tax revenue losses as well as the ef fects of the CU on FDI inflows .

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The purpose of this paper is to study selected aspects of Turkish accession to the EU. Joining the EU will require that Turkey attains macroeconomic stability, adopts the Common Agricultural Policy, and liberalizes its services and network industries. Furthermore, joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation and standards – the acquis communautaire. According to the EU membership criteria, new members must be able to demonstrate the ‘ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union’. Thus Turkey will be expected to adopt the euro when it is ready to do so, but not immediately upon accession. Integration will boost allocative efficiency in the Turkish economy which in turn will make the country a better place to invest. Furthermore, Turkey will reap the benefits from monetary integration and from migration of labour to the EU. But the welfare gains will have a price, and the price will be the adjustment costs associated with the adoption of the acquis communautaire. The final section of the paper considers the effects of accession on the EU in terms of migration and budgetary effects.

The purpose of the paper is to discuss the main issues highlighted in the Trade Policy Review: Turkey 2003. The paper studies first the main developments in Turkey's trade regime and trade performance. Next it discusses Turkish trade policy emphasising the measures affecting imports, exports and foreign direct investment. The paper points out that agriculture is highly protected, and that autonomous reforms have been implemented in some of the services sectors of the economy. Since joining the EU will require Turkey to adopt and implement the whole body of EU legislation - the acquis communautaire- in all areas, Turkey needs to liberalise its agricultural and services sectors further. Finally, the paper discusses an issue that has largely been neglected in Trade Policy Reviews. It is the sustainability of current account. The paper stresses that Turkey needs to pay close attention to the sustainability of the current account. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2005.