The globalization of COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts is set to run havoc across all economies in the world, throwing many into recession and possibly economic depression. As the numbers of infected and death cases rise sharply and recovery from the pandemic remains uncertain even in developed countries, evidence of shocks across economies including China, the Europe, and the US are already emerging. The aim of this paper is to provide an overall understanding of the likely macroeconomic shocks of the pandemic, covering economic activities or areas including demand, supply, supply chain, trade, investment, price level, exchange rates, and financial stability and risk, economic growth, and international cooperation. The paper first presents a general and theoretical mapping of the likely macroeconomic impacts of the pandemic on an affected economy and then reviews the emerging evidence in relation to the impact mapping to understand the nature of the impacts. The paper then illustrates the likely impacts using a standard macroeconomic AD-AS model and outlines some necessary features that needs to be considered while designing policy responses by governments and international institutions in mitigating the economic shocks. Assessments of this paper are broadly in line with the limited studies available on the economics of COVID-19.
The COVID-19 pandemic is damaging economies across the world, including financial markets and institutions in all possible dimensions. For banks in particular, the pandemic generates multifaceted crises, mostly through increases in default rates. This is likely to be worse in developing economies with poor financial market architecture. This paper utilizes Bangladesh as a case study of an emerging economy and examines the possible impacts of the pandemic on the country's banking sector. Bangladesh's banking sector already has a high level of non-performing loans (NPLs) and the pandemic is likely to worsen the situation. Using a state-designed stress testing model, the paper estimates the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on three particular dimensions-firm value, capital adequacy, and interest incomeunder different NPL shock scenarios. Findings suggest that all banks are likely to see a fall in risk-weighted asset values, capital adequacy ratios, and interest income at the individual bank and sectoral levels. However, estimates show that larger banks are relatively more vulnerable. The decline in all three dimensions will increase disproportionately if NPL shocks become larger. Findings further show that a 10% NPL shock could force capital adequacy of all banks to go below the minimum BASEL-III requirement, while a shock of 13% or more could turn it to zero or negative at the sectoral level. Findings call for immediate and innovative policy measures to prevent a large-scale and contagious banking crisis in Bangladesh. The paper offers lessons for other developing and emerging economies similar to Bangladesh.
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