Plant invasion has been widely recognized as an agent of global change that has the potential to have severe impacts under climate change. The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity and ecosystem stability is growing and not adequately studied, especially in developing countries. Defining climate suitability for multiple invasive plants establishment is important for early and strategic interventions to control and manage plant invasions. We modeled priority IAPS in Sri Lanka to identify the areas of greatest climatic suitability for their establishment and observed how these areas could be altered under projected climate change. We used Maximum Entropy method to model 14 nationally significant IAPS under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for 2050 and 2070. The combined climate suitability map produced by summing up climatic suitability of 14 IAPS was further classified into five classes in ArcMap as very high, high, moderate, low, and very low. South and west parts of Sri Lanka are projected to have potentially higher climatic suitability for a larger number of IAPS. We observed suitable area changes (gains and losses) in all five classes of which two were significant enough to make an overall negative impact i.e., (i) contraction of the very low class and (ii) expansion of the moderate class. Both these changes trigger the potential risk from IAPS in Sri Lanka in the future.The challenges posed by invasive alien plant species (IAPS) on biodiversity, ecological processes and ecosystem services, particularly in island countries, is increasing and well recognized [11]. This issue continues to be a challenge and increasingly important regardless of rigorous control and management efforts. Species invasion has been facilitated by the rapid growth of trade and transportation between countries, especially after the industrial revolution [12]. The natural barriers (i.e., mountains, rivers) that provided isolation required for unique species to evolve is no longer effective [7]. Understanding the current and potential distribution patterns is fundamental for managing IAPS [13][14][15]. Species distribution models (SDMs), which are based on ecological assumptions and theories, investigate how species shift their ecological niche spatially and temporally under climate change [16][17][18][19]. Hutchinson defined the niche as n-dimensional hyper-volume within which a species can survive and reproduce; in the absence of biotic interactions this volume is equal to the species' fundamental niche [16]. However, under given circumstances, a species will usually only occupy a certain part of the fundamental niche, which is called the realized niche [20]. Therefore, theoretically, SDMs estimate a species' potential distribution rather than the actual distribution. When the species niche is projected to a geographical space, it yields a predictive map of species' presence [21,22]. But there is a clear uncertainty associated with the changing climate which could be due to several reas...

Changes in the urban landscape resulting from rapid urbanisation and climate change have the potential to increase land surface temperature (LST) and the incidence of the urban heat island (UHI). An increase in urban heat directly affects urban livelihoods and systems. This study investigated the spatiotemporal variation of the UHI in the Kurunegala urban area (KUA) of North-Western Province, Sri Lanka. The KUA is one of the most intensively developing economic and administrative capitals in Sri Lanka with an urban system that is facing climate vulnerabilities and challenges of extreme heat conditions. We examined the UHI formation for the period 1996–2019 and its impact on the urban-systems by exploring nature-based solutions (NBS). This study used annual median temperatures based on Landsat data from 1996 to 2019 using the Google Earth Engine (GEE). Various geospatial approaches, including spectral index-based land use/cover mapping (1996, 2009 and 2019), urban-rural gradient zones, UHI profile, statistics and grid-based analysis, were used to analyse the data. The results revealed that the mean LST increased by 5.5 °C between 1996 and 2019 mainly associated with the expansion pattern of impervious surfaces. The mean LST had a positive correlation with impervious surfaces and a negative correlation with the green spaces in all the three time-points. Impacts due to climate change, including positive temperature and negative rainfall anomalies, contributed to the increase in LST. The study recommends interactively applying NBS to addressing the UHI impacts with effective mitigation and adaptation measures for urban sustainability.

Neglected and underutilized fruit species (NUFS) can make an important contribution to the economy, food security and nutrition requirement for Sri Lanka. Identifying suitable areas for cultivation of NUFS is of paramount importance to deal with impending climate change issues. Nevertheless, limited studies have been carried out to assess the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of NUFS. Therefore, we examined the potential range changes of NUFS in a tropical climate using a case study from Sri Lanka. We prioritized and modeled the potentially suitable areas for four NUFS, namely Aegle marmelos, Annona muricata, Limonia acidissima and Tamarindus indica under current and projected climates (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 using the maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution modeling (SDM) approach. Potentially suitable areas for NUFS are predicted to decrease in the future under both scenarios. Out of the four NUFS, T. indica appears to be at the highest risk due to reduction in potential areas that are suitable for its growth under both emissions scenarios. The predicted suitable area reductions of this species for 2050 and 2070 are estimated as >75% compared to the current climate. A region of potentially higher climatic suitability was found around mid-county for multiple NUFS, which is also predicted to decrease under projected climate change. Further, the study identified high-potential agro-ecological regions (AERs) located in the mid-country’s wet and intermediate zones as the most suitable areas for promoting the cultivation of NUFS. The findings show the potential for incorporating predictive modeling into the management of NUFS under projected climate change. This study highlights the requirements of climate change adaptation strategies and focused research that can increase the resilience of NUFS to future changes in climate.

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Background Young onset colorectal cancer is on the rise, with a disproportionate increase in incidence among young people, both in Australia and internationally. Current national guidelines for bowel cancer screening in average risk individuals include only patients greater than 50 years of age. It is well recognized that colorectal cancer is a highly treatable malignancy when detected at an early stage, and timely diagnosis yields a greater than 90% chance of cure and survival. The aims of this study were to define the clinical presentations leading to colonoscopy in young patients and assess the incidence of malignancy in this group. Methods This is a retrospective cohort study including all patients ≤35 years of age without any baseline indication for early bowel cancer surveillance that underwent colonoscopy at Caboolture Hospital from January 2017 to April 2018. Results A total of 224 patients underwent colonoscopy in the study period. A total of 210 (93.8%) had symptoms including rectal bleeding (51.7%), altered bowel habit (25.9%), abdominal pain (10.3%) and symptomatic anaemia (6.7%) prior to colonoscopy. Two cases of invasive adenocarcinoma were identified (0.89%, P < 0.01), both of which were symptomatic and were defined as stage IIIB disease on histopathology. Conclusion In a theoretically low‐risk population, the incidence of malignancy was nearly 1%. More advanced disease at diagnosis may be due to a delay in investigating these patients due to an overall low suspicion of cancer in young individuals. As such, investigation should be offered early to young patients presenting with any warning symptoms.