We analyzed the conditional correlation between the returns of five assets (S&P 500, investment grade bond, high-yield bond, crude oil and gold). The results obtained with the AGDCC model lead to several conclusions. The correlations between the assets retained are feeble during stable periods. In periods of financial crisis with sustained economic growth, adding gold, crude oil, high-yield bonds and investment-grade bonds in a portfolio can improve the benefit of this portfolio. However, investors should adjust their portfolio when concerns about the economic growth appear as crude oil is negatively correlated with the returns of the S&P 500 and the high-yield bond during crisis periods, but it is positively correlated with those assets' returns when the crisis is coupled with economic recession. Regarding the high yield bond, it losses less value than stock index during bear market and it appreciates as much as stock index during bull market. As for the gold, it is a strong safe haven during periods characterized by fears of recession, concerns regarding the credit markets, target rate cuts, as well as uncertainties regarding inflation rate. Thus, gold was not a safe haven during the Asian and the Russian crises, whereas it was a weak safe haven during the dot-com crisis and a strong safe haven during the subprime crisis. During these crises, due to the "flight-to-quality" gold value appreciated strongly compared to the other assets retained. Furthermore, with the aggravation of the economic and financial situation the negative impacts of the subprime crisis have spread from stock market and high-yield bonds to other financial markets (contagion), except to the gold market.

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This paper, using panel data approach, evaluates the effect of, respectively, the central bank transparency, independence and credibility on, respectively, the level and variability of realized and expected economic performance. It also analyzes the effects of central banks characteristics on the level and variability of Government bond rate. The results obtained suggest that central bank independence does not influence the realized and expected level and variability of economic performance. As for the central bank transparency, our findings are consistent with the view that greater transparency could have a desirable reputational effect that lowers inflation expectations and long-term nominal interest rates. Finally, our results show that central bank credibility negatively influences the level and variability of Government bond rate.

In order to preserve their solvency, it is very important for insurance companies to accurately estimate their future required reserves. The aim of this article is to determine reserves by using different stochastic models: 1) distribution-free model (Mack's model), 2) probability distribution based models (Normal, Poisson, Gamma and Inverse Gaussian distributions), and 3) these latter probability based models combined with bootstrapping. To implement these models we used data on life-insurance and non-life insurance. Our findings indicate among distribution based methods, Mack's model (dataset 1 and 2) and Gamma probability distribution based model (dataset 3) are the best model in estimating reserves. The model based on Normal distribution produces the worst results, whatever the dataset. Regarding results of bootstrapping based on probability distribution models, they show that method based on Normal probability distribution (dataset 1 and 3) and ODP distribution (dataset 2) fit better. Our results also indicate that bootstrap method based on Chain-Ladder performs quit similarly than the best fitting probability distribution based bootstrap models. Among all retained models, methods based on bootstrapping present higher good-of-fit.